Common Sense Retiremet 2-17

Common Sense Retirement Planning
Saturday, February 17th

Common Sense Retirement Planning


Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Well good morning welcome to common sense retirement planning and Tony gale. Seeing as always with my. Oldest best friend a moral Philip Allen and the delightful and charming common scenes retirement team member Rebecca Kincaid and and as always as the very first retirement planning show here in. As the State's regional retirement players we have some cool stuff to share with you today. We have always. We've always on they show in a very different way. We want we want it always have wanted it to be. Something that informed indeed if you listen to show we would like to think it shall take at least one thing you heard today. And in you think about it it'll give you something it'll be knowledge something you didn't know he should learn something every case would we we try to inform and of course. If Phillips here you know it's going to be entertaining as well. And it'll make it easier to be attractive as well so he sort of got it all covered even though this of course is not television it's a shame for you but. Oh well wait a minute. Now I mean it's a shame and in Connecticut and I appreciate you do just got a new York and note that all it oh my gosh I'm ice dangerous attitude and I just nice to meet. Home like I forgive me please. Please don't sit there and it. Lord are right anyway. Alum and we also. Have always. Started this program at our world view is Christian worldview were very open about that we actually. We've had to believe or not. It the financial services industry is very secular world. And we just recently actually head to go to bed. Was some people in our industry. Because we can you imagine quote the Bible on the show we actually had good sailor. Read you gonna do it or are we knocking our review period. I'm not mention any names but in solitude. To do what we always do you crave a starter program. We something from the ultimate book list. At a live 1215. In the Bible says watch out. Beyond your guard against all kinds of greed. For life does not consistent abundance of. Positions. And Matthew. A quote from the same Bible. Then it connects perfectly because it's all part of the same narrative of the Jesus had which is good paying attention the material on pay attention of the eternal. Matthew 619. Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth from laws government destroying these breaking in steel. Sort of fear sells treasury and have been. Moss government do not destroy and where these two and a break in steal for. Where your treasure is there your heart. Will be also. And ran it in the end and I said it's funny it is this week had a conversation have when my clients retiring. And we were talking about. What do you do when you're retiring and I'll give you decent this is very interesting and Wall Street Journal this weekend story. This people who take. Social Security at the age of 62 and retire. Dieting much higher rate than people who waste. In one of the reasons for this is that in retirement is not about money yes then we we talk obviously about investments in the land on the show with. I had this conversation with people who are retiring in one of my very favorite clients is this week came in and he's gonna retire and in March. And so I said now. Rick. You're getting ready to retire. How are you going to reinvent yourself. How are you going to achieve significance. And purpose because in. The hierarchy of needs psychological man's law. The very highest in most important thing on that pyramid. Which starts with two children clothing the most important thing we as human needs. Something to define yes. Include an F three Christian moral view that means how can we be of service. How can we give back to life how can we use our gifts. And talents in this world since now we going to have some time to do that we never had before. So when you look at retirement that's one of the things you you really need to think about this is how do you how do you take two's the spiritual gifts. And used in the spirituality and because money is nothing we green energy and it fuels the machine is built on three important things. Relationships. But god and the people Ullah. That time he's blessed you with which is limited. And your health. So I think that it while you're busy thinking about retirement and your money. Tony if you view second and it just the second in you may have meant just to be a personal conversation with Maybin it meant a lot to immediate. Probably not a balcony of personal well I think you'd be hard you know Tony has a lot of hands sees a talk show host the a family man. Musician. And of course an extraordinary financial advisor but he was talking about you know we come out at the tests and I guess music means a lot to them and then I ask him what he would like on his epitaph and he said basically he wanted to say said the Tony. Laid down the booty in play that funky music really dead. And that ten. Chris had a lot to Maine town too much too early. See it this I view people don't know this that we if you ever come to see. Us and you sit down for you sit down the funniest human beings I won't go to lunch with a minute just thought I'd have a hard time finishing lunch 'cause I'm mind. Abdominal muscles or work all the time not digesting Atlanta hope. Sorry forgot to turn my little thing you off but that don't and nevermind it's okay is this is only radio. And that is a good thing sept. I want to share something with you today that I think is about perspective in what is going on in the world socialist let me ask you questions. Would you agree. That we are living. In some of the most Ab normal. Times. May be in your whole lifetime would you say that's a fair I mean when you look at the the world. At large. Everything not just economics bit geopolitics. And politics in this country did this in this all when you say that we have reached a point where where things are more extreme. You've ever seen them. I think so so. That being said. One of the most important and one of the basic. Rules of the economy and economics. Is what's called reversion. To demean. Meaning. Only a media analogy. If you if you're lost and you wanna find direction what you need to find out who wears magnetic north that's what accomplish what do for investing. The most reliable force of finances this relentless returned to normal. To get our bearings. That's that's the northstar on the pole star magnetic north or in economics were caller reversion to demean or the normal what's normal. And that's how economists describe it reversion to the main just just recognizing the tendency for things to stay in a range. We would recognize is in normal range. And that's why for example you don't see trees grow to a thousand feet people are an under miles an hour that's not normal. And in economics you don't get something for nothing there's another abnormal things cell. Normally exists because things came to follow in very familiar patterns and shapes fractal geometry tells us about this we have routines. Every so often. Things change any fundamental way. And that is usually when we hear the words oh well this time it's different being spoken when we talk about investing. In the if you hear those words being spoken that is a good time to begin. To bit on normal. So so this phenomena and of reversion to demeanor was normal. This has been tested steady he's one of the first things you learn economics in the distant world. And it applies to everything it doesn't matter what asset class it's true stocks or bonds or or any kind of strategy you know whatever sector you name it. There's always a normal and things will eventually revert to that norm so. Listen to this and think of it in terms of normal. Global dead in 1994 wished thirty trillion. Now it's 230. Trillion that's just since 94. The real economy. As measured by gross domestic product has grown in a rather normal way all that time. Much slower. Factoring your bombing years of barely got to one point 7%. So did the underlying economy's been plodding along. And normal. You 3% or thereabouts on effort. Yet we've increased debt from thirty trillion to 200. In two to 200 trillion to two start 230 trillion. 200 trillion. Trillion dollar increase. Here's another thing. Until midnight eighties again if you go back to a wave in 2012 again these things happen. The average investor got essentially no benefit at all. In exchange for all the added to. Risk of putting his money into stocks. He might just as well lift his money in in treasuries during his Peter. Why. We call eyes. Things reverted to demean. So in theory and were supposed to be able and return right. You can even do by lending money to the government by being US buying US treasuries. Or. Investing in stocks and taking a higher risk in paying higher risk premium for so in practice. Risk free treasuries actually. Learned very little but because of the losses in the market. If you stuck in this whole time you also would have earned very little. Virtually nothing over the last 24 years because of the drops in the market. So. I 2008 the average investor. Was again earning less on stocks. In spite of all the risk in all market investing in they wouldn't think ages parked it and in treasuries. So here's the point of all of this. There's a time Indian stocks and a time to not be in stocks and without knowing the future. One thing that you can know absolutely that question right now. Things are not normal. And when something is not normal. It is biding its time until. It becomes normal again. Telling you this if the market is at these incredible heights. And actually looking at a picture of peoples to take skiing down the side of the mountain ski jumping Perry is right there. I wish you could see individuals exactly what's getting ready to happen to the market. When you look at the Olympics and Justine do you ski jump just think when I said. If you would like to know. Have to locking your gains that you've had over the last few years have a developer rock solid retirement plan that allow you to sleep well at night she give us a call. You have to be proactive about this. 180687676. A 180687676. Day. Look us up on the way a bit CS RP dot info. What's interesting to me about Tony was talking about reversion to mean. I TV couple examples of bad that you not be aware of remember real estate in Florida. All of a sudden real estate in Florida became very popular and people started pouring money into it the calls. They were. We know for whatever reason they were greedy they felt like. They they missed. This. Bubble. For being a good investment. And for I don't know how many clients I had this is my children want to take on my retirement savings and double my money with the read. House in Florida. Well that worked out. Great. Ride up to the boy it they all got killed you know and ruined their life saving you know. News GE I hear these horror stories but what happened was. This the real estate in Florida. It wasn't really worth more it just was priced more and it reverted back to Maine well right now. That's what's happened in the market where at the top of the process our treasure what. Now Tony there are three to each you know they should be sixteen on average. So you know in other words stocks are the highest point they've been basically in history do you want some of that. But you know you're not thinking like that because you know what you've been told buy and hold buy and hold you say they want you to hold so they can say oh. Before you do that's more at best buy and hold there's always laughed and he. The great financial planners that you read about their expert at knowing when they get out of the market. But the sheep the average person out there has been brought into this buy and hold mentality. And you may geek healed if that happens that's what happened in 2001 that's what happened in 2008. And it's fakes and haven't again for a whole lot of reasons. And you've got to know how to lock in those gains in icy again Vegas and he's made a lot of money. What do you say he's made a lot of money won't want to hear things like he's up now. For the time being because as long as he still playing DA made it down really tells you could be down you know just you know by and the morning L. Rat now he knows that if you could locking your gains. That she's done whale over the past eight years but she you have to do something about that that's what world about it common situation you have a locking your games. How to drive and paid no that your not gonna follow any further in the endless get a reasonable rate of return going forward from here. You give us a call 180687676. Say don't let happen do you what happened to people with Florida real estate. 180687676. Say. Look us up on the way avid CS RP dot info. And my opinion is not real money list she can spend it and it sounds like if you lose it first of all you never really had an based on an insecure place where won't go anywhere. Well we're seeing now. One overseeing a lot of rampant and violent volatility in the stock market much more than we've seen in the last fifteen months. The thing that we're seeing is we RC is seeing a rise in consumer prices earlier this week. They always a big announcement with her guards to inflation and how inflation fears are really starting to pick up. I had a piece here that is for MarketWatch. Are she'd be CNBC. In the article talks about how US consumer prices raised considerably more than expected in Jane you wary fueling fears of inflation is about to turn dangerously higher. The Consumer Price Index which by the way Asia eased the core Consumer Price Index is used to youth. Give a year in uses a barometer to give you raises in your Social Security payment price at that is supposed to measure inflation. Arrows point 5% last month against predictions of point 3% increase. Excluding. A volatile state and energy prices index is up point 3% against estimates appoint two it says their shooting short they're shooting short and that. The report indicate that price pressure price pressures were broad based with the rises in gasoline he needs in gasoline Dini canceling get the station. Shelter clothing medical care and fade. Investors also began to price in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times this year. Faster economic growth over most of this past year has tightened labor and product markets and help to base prices at a faster pace. This is according to David Bernstein are burdensome. Chief economist at nationwide. We expect in this Tony goes back to center and that she were just talking about we expect a real GDP growth this year to be around 3%. Faster trend faster than stranded supportive of higher inflation. So will we start looking at this and we start talking about the Fed's tightening monetary policy we start talking about feds raising their rates. Well what does that mean well that means at cape organist are running to put their money in a safer place here's what's happened. And that's to be out here negatives. And we talked about this many many times in our copper trains and our offices. Meant to be your taking on risk that you don't wanna take. You're taking on risk because the market is the only place she banged areas to Gator rate of return and there's a prettier girl Walken by. There's going to be a lot of fluctuation and volatility in the market because people are gonna go back to where they fit and that's not in a risky position of their assets. You lost me on the prettier girl was a prettier girl scout Balkan you know you want a pretty girl want compile. Can you imagine Tony the people that are in the market now. That if only reason they're there is because they can only a 1%. And yeah armor and they start raising those interest rates there's going to be a job sucking sound and selling those stocks and demand would that. Stocks. Finding out what bonds have been screaming now for weeks I did that look central banks and you kind of limited in printing money. For years I mean we are. We're name they've been maintaining emergency level. Of Q the emergency like just things are abnormal to go back my. Original thing that they've unleashed inflation. As a first time this week I saw a headline I've not seen as we're since the seventies. Is this the return of stagflation. Like this is interest in less than this and you already know this he go shopping I've noticed shrink palatial. Listeners. Shrinks relation is ramping up as consumers get less product for the same increase prices. If you've reported inflation is actually much higher than is being reported because this is an include shrink elation. Is the shrinking of package sizes and you see it all the time and I'll give you another thing to think of Rebecca you mentioned the Consumer Price Index. That is a manipulated index. Do not it and not even close to what real world inflation is I've seen some so much more accurate representations of inflation. The good inflation closer to 7%. Right now so here's here's why this matters. You are going to have to have a way. To give return while at the same time minimizing risk if you're looking at a retirement plan aspects dose of the fundamentals. You can't take an interest when you're older because if you lose money will run out of money. But you have to be able to have some return in the air so that you have a chance of staying ahead of the inflationary pressures and and I believe because of the holding interest rates and he is thousands of year lows and pretty lawless million creating all his dad. At some point you are going to get inflation and I think that that inflection point is already be any end we're seeing the beginnings of this. Which means as Rebecca was alluding number one. Interest rates are going to go up which means several things one you can go out and get a new issue bond to make a much higher rate return and whatever sitting inside your bureau. Mutual fund portfolio. It's an older bond. And means. Did the bond. Yield the bonds tank at the same time when higher yields and bond become available. People get out of the risky stock market and put everything in bond which was when Philip was talking about what if what if there were an alternative to the news. What if there were. Another way in other instrument another approach and it would. Any give you safety. And take the risks cited the equation now. While at the same guy and giving you the opportunity to make. A reasonable rate of return. But both currently arguably the most important of all because keep in mind only reasoning and Rebecca citadel is only money when you spend it. To make sure that when you need an income from all of us. You'll have a guaranteed income. There will last you and a spouse for the rest of your lives and continue. Give me the opportunity to get returned so you can stay ahead of that inflation we're talking about that. Is just common sense right. Well actually it is common sense retirement planning approach. We call them rigs or retirement income generator that is part of the foundation of of of real retirement plan and I'd love it. If you would come and visit us letters show easy issue to love it our client certainly do you believe it will give each component numbers like jaskol. But this gives you. The opportunity to sit down at no cost to you and at least. Get a second opinion on what your currently doing in compare to what else is out there. End and we won't put together plan. And let you make a decision and when you look at it to say wanna wait a minute which of these makes more sense than. Smart person I'm going to be pretty pretty obvious so here's what you do. Go to our website CS RP dot info and make an appointment coming to see this as surely something amazing. And it common century town planning where your alternative to the mainstream financial Prius the basic things that you've heard about investment planning. Buy and hold sometimes when you need to go into retirement. Those things don't work a good investment plan doesn't necessarily make a good retirement plan. Give us a call 180687676. Say. 180687676. Say look this up at CS RP dot info. Let us show you what a rock solid retirement plan looks like ensure you the difference between a great retirement plan and the typical investment plan. When we come back we want to give you some ideas of why you do not need to be correlated. With this market. Give us a call. 1806876768. Will be back in a few minutes with comments entry dharma planning. Welcome back to common sent retirement planning this is Phillip island. With Tony dale and Rebecca Kincaid we appreciate you listening to us on this week in Roby having a good weekend. And we've always thankful that people tuning in and to hear us talking about what's going on in the financial markets. But for the break us and it comes into retirement planning is an alternative to the mainstream financial risks. We were reading an article on the show last week which owns CNBC. The man who was being interviewed was kind of beating up the markets in the article said well CNBC. Being ever president of its advertisers tried to calm that down. Seed they have an agenda and the agenda is for you to take too much risk with your man in the typical financial advisor. I believe. Maybe unwittingly may be knowingly. Won't choose to take too much risk with your money and the way they do that by the way. I thought about this the other day. The way they do that is if our going to open a traditional. Financial planning job where we weren't. As concerned about safety we as we are I would name it mired in the minutia financial plans are. Because they keep you mired in the minutia. Of you know the alternatives and what percentage is and you know how or shorting the Bakes in all this kind of thing and in the end. The big picture is if we go through and of the 2000 nature released after many. But bet that they get you so focused on little bitty details. And things that do not matter that sometimes you're taking far too much risk then you should. With your money and we've learned that over years and years. Of experience in this business Tony's head. Years of experience in radio and when we got into radio he knew so many things about what we should do and shouldn't do just from experience. And we have about. Imus MD five years' worth of experience sitting right here in the financial services Vizquel who told me that they said he he he learned things from experience your radio. He said that he had this big idea on the first radio shoes on was to have a radio show in May was on my name radio show where they were. I like piecing these mines and apart and it just didn't go over there. And I just it he's just mark that one back. He is mark that one off the list. And but you know there's something to be said for experience. Have you noticed that what you've been sold lately work ETFs. Boy the thing to do is by how the market by the broad market. It's an ATF what you're doing is your strapping yourself to the market. Also understanding if you've got to philosophy of straight are coyote he would strap himself to an acme rocket. Well that worked well for awhile. OK but if you believe in buy and hold ending your just had to the total market that's a recipe for disaster. And that's why I happen in this little flash crash we had over the last few days. Is when people decide to start selling. Those things go down as fast as they go up is that is that your retirement plan. Distract yourself to this market what Tony and I and Rebecca do is we look for things that do not correlated with the broader market. One of rare. We believe that your basic living expense he should be covered with guaranteed money that you and your wife. Cannot out Leah for the last. Fifteen years ever plan that we develop has built an inflation protection. Getting ready for what's about to happen that we're talking about but I was looking at one of air investments and don't say the name and only in his specifics but tells. Everybody has their own situation and we wanna tailor make a plan for you. But it's a plan that we use for liquid money we want everybody to have a good liquid position where they going into retirement. And this. List all the things that are important about this investment. Liquidity. Professional management capital appreciation. All those kind of things but the beat importance here is it does not correlated with the broader markets. And one week. Few weeks ago when the broader markets lost about 5%. This thing lost point one and came back the next day because we're not strapping their clients. Two EDS in this broad market that's not a good idea for retirement it's a recipe for disaster. This is. I have to say music. A joke about the federal laden and I read a book contract if you want to understand the Federal Reserve go read a book called a creature from Jekyll island. Enabled it all it's a wake up call because. People most of them don't even understand the fate isn't even in governmental agency is just the banking cartel has been given this freedom to print money and sent interest rates. You have an exciting life. Hate this weekend or read a book and how it works well Allen got started it's actually if it's a short book but he will be tomorrow most here do not know the history of Al had to get raped and Alan okay. Are tentative to some time did any. Those of you who don't wanna get root canal images and some of them appear at the Fed. Has been way behind the curve in these emergency measures that they've got me here simply. Wouldn't simplest way to understand. How we got to where we are right now. So the market crashed in 07 in LA and that's a whole other story of how bad habit got to happen actually we can go back to go Allen Greenspan's policies frankly. Did to start the first mobile which was a tech stock bubble because of messing with interest rates but. When we had the massive. Sick and melt down of the of the century of the decade then all of a sudden the Fed stepped in says this is an emergency. We've got to quote bailout. The financial system. Your fellow bankers. How are we gonna do that. Well we're gonna lower interest rates too low as they binge thousands. Of years pretty calm and normal thing right there right. We're gonna print a bunch of money one point seven trillion dollars worth and workers start by our own US treasuries. Whereby we call will call quantitative easing. We're gonna do all that now who benefited from. The people who benefited. Primarily be in the top 110. Of 1%. It's been big corporate America who has gone haven't been able to borrow money and nothing. And by their own stock back which was the main driver of the stock market over the last nine years. Not fundamentals. So I think that instead of investing money in research and development and hiring new people opening new factories and so forth. The company officers went out. Borrow money bought their own stock and why would they do that well in drawl moved. The value of the stock cup which really made him look good major stockholders really happy and they got big fat bonuses. But he did not help the gross domestic product of Thor and the productivity in this country. I know that sounds kind of political but here's the problem. Now the fate is out of bullets they are way behind the curve on inflation Rebecca mentioned earlier this week we saw an inflation begin to take off so now. Unless the Fed starts to tighten aggressively meaning raise interest rates to support the bond markets. The stock market is likely to crash so the entire move on stocks and it since the great financial crisis has barely been based. On nothing more than the fig creating a bubble in sovereign bonds. On trade is based on what inflation. So then if inflation rises so do bond yields. And when bond yields rise as they are and as they are predicted to do this year. Bond prices fall. From existing bonds. In the bond prices fall the massive debt bubble bubble started all of this moving stock prices begins to burst. Hence we end up with a dual. Problem. Stock and bond markets begin to go south. Now that does not sound like a whole lot of fun if you're sitting in your typical. Stock and bond portfolio and end any fewer advisor says do you. You say oh my gosh is market or do I don't wanna go to safety Macy Gray it will go to bonds. You their final bonds they're talking about. Because then you can have a risk in both bonds and stocks this time and therefore. You need something it doesn't correlated to a broader market. You need become a CS talk about not an investment strategy. But a retirement. Strategy. We'll get you through no matter what happens what if what if I told you that we have clients a lot of them hundreds of them. Who when the market crashed. In 070 wait did losing thing when market crash last week. They didn't lose anything actually hurt and takes coming in on terror show this week of some of our clients for Turkish I'm not worried. They're not. Because. If you have a retirement income generators to foundational element of your retirement plan if you know without question you're having guaranteed income for life. The American market goes down you're not gonna lose anything your income keeps going up every time the market does go up. And he's for life for you and your spouse. Then whatever's under ass that you had that you might be wanting to put at risk. That's a whole other thing with your main foundational expenses are safe taking care of and you have to worry. That's just common sense. Fact it is common sense retirement planning and that's why we call that. And we would love to show you what that looks like for you personally shall we you please do yourself a favor. Alarmed web site. CS RP dot info make an appointment common CES and don't wait until market really does takes everybody runs for the exit. Be the Smart guy in the room and do it now. Just a quick note Tony it's interesting to me that they're sending this whole thing you have to blame on trump. Because there's there's myriad of reasons why interest rates should be. You know rise in interest rates in the should have been done along time ago and they put it off to that's gonna blow the doors off when they do it. But Albert Edwards was talking about he was having a conversation in London. With George Manges who was UBS chief economists. And now he's at Oxford University. And they were talking about that. The timing of this physical stimulus. And the physical stimulus why are they doing it in order to heat the economy get the economy going. Well that's gonna give the Fey at the skis were not gonna raise it for all those other reasons we're gonna raise it McCall's. Out of trumps physical stimulus we're gonna have to raise the rates. And there that the result of that is going to be the market collapse and he says it is the timing of the physical stimulus. That will only accelerate the collapse of US financial market as the rate hikes as the Fayette hikes rates even more quickly. And admit they're setting it when it comes and they know it's coming to blame it on trial. Well it is so funny that you say that Philip Hanson and here friend. CBS. Again. That basically says another expert is saying the same type of thing. Peter of that car. He's chief financial officer obliquely advisory curry and he says quiet. If the Fed wasn't so scared of their own chat and in 2015201616. And hike to rates three times each year. We wouldn't be having this same conversation. So that exact Edgar and he said that from from someone at from a totally different space. The other thing is is they're anticipating a rate hikes in March and in Jeanne. Something I did want to back up for just a second we talk about the Schiller ratio I just a moment again accent and hear from four herbs. And if she so interesting to me we alluded to this last week. The spin. That the mainstream financial press puts on things when things are go and their blow an Angolan. Everything's great by the I wan now. Because of the space that Maury N in the license is that we hold the worst starting to get inundated. With emails about how to handle your clients. I had a handle your clients because of this volatility people are getting nervous had a talk about the alleged. Well one of the things in this particular piece says stocks were pricey anyway really. Work that's that's that's not quit adds that that's announced Charlie about where I was hearing is fundamentals are sound they're sound this. Thank you were no anyway and I heard oh yeah. Well it did scares on this say there's a lot of debate on whether stocks are a Hoover or undervalued. It's a relative term and you need historical bad. To make an educated it may ultimately we just if you mind I wanna make an analogy because this is this is it is no more complicated than Nick's. Instead of thinking of stocks for a minute let's imagine that you decide you gonna buy new car let's just say it's a Toyota camera. C go out you go online and used to say OK what what is a what's the going cost of the Toyota camera and you go on him when dealers this let's say is 32000 dollars and and you go Iowa there's dealers got a warm for for 31 find that's a pretty good deal. Anybody find this other guys he's got a Toyota Camry ms. 55000. Dollars same car. They can only imagine it. That's overvalued. I'm danger not gonna go to CNET fool. And yet. How people have done exactly that in the stock market they they have no problem with going and paying. Just astronomical. You opened 240 dollar a share PVP and eat Yelp. Did flicks to 31 hello. Well and see you when you guys are talking about the Schiller ratio and that is an and pepper have listened to the show you part of talk about the Schiller PE ratio and but Robert Shiller is a Nobel Prize winner. He. Did Schiller ratio and compare is is according to the S and paid. Was 32 so you are right on thirty ticket but what is at Maine and we did you relativity of how this Spain ends in compares to other crashes that we had. On black Tuesday in 1929. The ratio was third. At the height of the dot com bubble in 1999. It was around 45. The average since 1885. Is around seven teen. Says. Relative to other market tops you can reasonably assay and that US stocks are very expensive to your point. But again we're at 32. It crashed in 1920 nom and the ratio was at thirty and then 45 and 1999. There's a lot of things that are core relating. It's what I say at the beginning of the program Rebecca if there is normal that they. Is designed to operate. At enormous whatever those norms may be didn't matter what system you're describing. There is a baseline he norm there's a normal heart rate when he goes in your heart rate goes to a 120 beats a minute. And then jumped 280 that's abnormal in your hand toward my vehicle my Carty on far action it it is it is absolutely abnormal. To think that you were going to sustain. High historically high priced earnings ratio forever and they're just gonna keep going up that's not how nature behaves. And if that is the case in their already historic ties as I sit at the top of the show. Now is the time to start heading for the exits and don't wait till the fire alarm goes off. That's why we have created a safe space for you lesser. After this if I know I know I feel all of these snowflakes would be extremely happy to come this is because we actually do have a safe space for leaving giving chocolate in golf team and but sanity gone you know maybe. But seriously now is the time beat a Smart person. We've beat even the person before the hurricane arrived you are he had all your windows covered with plywood. In the water stored and you were you were all cool no worries mate we GAAP. That's the way to be with your life savings could she know being able to replace it if you just go downhill with a everyone else. So please do yourself a favor now while you may. Safely. Come see sitcom and since retirement planning go to our website eighty GC SRP. Stand for comments and retirement planning CS RP dot. Intel make an appointment. Call us feel like 806 eights and 6760. I mean it's I think you'll like what you see. And don't get mad as for trying. There's old songs that I turned 21 imprisoned do in life without parole no one can steer me rabbit mama tried mama tried you know you don't get mad at mama effort trying to steer you right so I'll give you an example of what we're trying to explain to be worth the palatial. WORD. Studios with this money peony. Right now. And on the way here we came down Garland road not passed General Electric and gas turbine division. And it looked like they pretty busy you know everything's going pretty good they're still. I know there have been some difficult doing some. Re arranging in the corporate that kind of thing. But guess what Boeing is still buying jet engines from GE U still good and the lows and by GE refrigerator. You know all that still go on com. But let me tell you what's going on behind the saints. A year ago the last over the last 52 weeks GE stock at one time was thirty dollars a share a little bit more than thirty dollars a share you Reggie stocky is. This way around fifteen dollars a share well you know Wharton. The people are still wanna work there's the other must dumber still employed in LA is not the end of the world they're just stock has got cut in half. But there were people they can kinda stay ahead almost all of their retirement assets in GE stock. That we told them they needed to be sure and lock bedding and that if they had not had done it. If they went ahead of 500000. Dollar tar plan it be worth 200 and safety they would have ruined their retirement. Well if you ever thought that that little example that local example of General Electric. Could be the same for youth is far maybe like a canary in the coal mine and you hear about people say I had just found got a million dollars in my retirement plan. Well if you have it and the S&P 500 fund with vanguard if it was 2000 NA. 48% of that would have been gone in years' time in 2008. You realize the risk you're taking when we're telling you that PE ratios. This this market is the highest priced market in history just like Florida real estate. Come on let me show you the details and show you what it means to locking your gains before it's too late 1800. 687676. Day. 180687676. Say look this up at CS RP dot info. I had something very interesting that is dated from the November 17 2017. This is an article for and fidelity viewpoints. And so it's one of them one of your mainstream wire house terms. They tie Levitt is being missing ingredients for a bear marker but a bear market. Without extensive the leverage or inflation. A bear market seems unlikely. Now we're gonna yeah I'd like to add to and how this article a little bit because it is it is comical. Historically. Rising inflation often forces says that the Fed to raise interest rates. Two point of converting the yield curve and eventually causing a recession. And might be even this is cheering timber he's director of global macro for fidelity management research. In my view the two key drivers that will signal when the US six ancient and bull market are ending. Are how bad are an Amy bad subsequent downturns might be are driven by inflation. And to leverage. Also known as debt used to buy assets. The emergence of inflation in the late stage of an economic cycle typically forces a fed pain and in terms of speed and magnitude. A bitch rate tightening cycle is a senate familiar. If inflation pressures that come bad enough to force excessive rate hikes what follows. Is an inversion of the yield curve. When interest rates on shorter maturity bonds. Rais. Above rates on longer maturity bonds. History suggests it's typically heard tales the availability of credit which causes the economy to contract and a bear market. To start. If inflation appeals. Rebels weathered ex pages going to end the amount of leverage in the system might indicate how bad the subsequent downturn could be. High levels of leverage. Can lead to forced selling an eight liquidity. Crisis. Which turned to ordinary downturn. Into a crash. The worst selling help create a kind of severe downturn that we solid 2008. There is folks. Right from fidelity. Right but of course at the time in November wind you wrote here is. They were telling you why the bear market wasn't going to happen ash right now suddenly here we are just a few months later and well who knew well I can actually we did. Well week. We we were on the radio. Here. NO seven. And before. Saying hey look this is this what's going on is abnormal. You guys need to be careful this this is going to get out of hand. Any number of people did listen to loosen came in and suffered not a all in the market crashed back in the sand and finally they're still clients' needs it. That's going to happen again. The Smart clients were those people then we had other clients that came after they'd already lost 23. Some more. And they they were just dumb struck they were in tears they weren't hadn't even open their statements for months they were so. They were afraid to look at how much has lost. But we were able to stop the bleeding it was like then it was like triage. You know the owner it was like the first people who came in they just got a little little cut we were able doctor banner and put a couple stages everything's good. There we had people coming in with arterial bleeding. We are trying to do to stop then we put them on life support. Think 2000 an eight day another difference and we say this to just fundamentally is a difference and Tom between. Now Bobby's been ten years again that's number one but number two just how technology really exacerbates the problem and perpetuates. Downward fall you start looking at all these out array and consider that used to work. They exist and in 2000 may not the red eye type investing advisors that that we see now that are so common. They can sell faster than you can and that's the problem with the TS which Phillip has alluded to and and if you listened us would you listen Alan Greenspan if he came and said be careful former federal chair Alan Greenspan. So he's bubbles in stocks and bonds the man who made the term irrational exuberance famous as investors are at it again. They're two bubbles we have a stock market bubble we have a bond market bubble. If people like Alan Greenspan warning you and your settings there and you have at the top of this mountain. Wouldn't it be a good time to look at all the ways you could locking your games in order that you could go into retirement. Successfully. If he Yemen huge amount analogy because he's got to keep it where we're and we're doing the show here they've got the Winter Olympics on two or watching these people doing ski jumps and all this kind of thing. What if you're sitting on a good year on top of the mountain. And there's this enormous valley and in where you need to go is another mountain that you can see off in the distance. So your choices are you can go. All the way down through the valley crossed the river climbed back up the other side of the mountain and he's gonna Wear you out or there's a cable car. You can get on the cable carnival take you from here up to the higher mountain across the valley there we can show you that cable car preacher minute. And guarantee an income from life you'll be safe you won't get out of the market risk if you've been in that's called common cents. Go to. Our comments and retirement planning website. C is RP dot info do with today don't wait until the market can tissue from behind. Be smarter than that CS RP got info call us an 800. 6876768. However you gear we would absolutely love to meet you. And let you to become part of our common sense retirement planning family. Have a wonderful week in god bless you will be looking for area.