Common Sense Retirement 9-23

Common Sense Retirement Planning
Saturday, September 23rd

Common Sense Retirement Planning

00:50:36

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Good morning. Welcome comments since retirement planning and attorney dale with my. Best friend and partner for almost what eighteen years count ten believable. Philip Allen of course Lee delightful charming and attractive Rebecca Kincaid part of our common sense retirement planning team. This year. Ease the alternative to the mainstream financial press this is the original retirement planning program here. We are any of State's original retirement planners and on this program wolf we seek to view. Is arming you with knowledge. Not. To tell you what they're going do but rather. And certainly not to be just another one of those informal Marshall type radio shows Richard all over the place. Rather we wanted to try to tell you some things going on in the world that could have a direct impact on your retirement and also give you. Kind of philosophical way of looking at the difference between retirement planning. And investment planning and there's a big difference we'll talk about that today as well. Everything we do we do should capital investment group member of Finneran. And civic. We. Wherever we use in these sort of insurance products as we backed by the strength of the game and companies be it long term care or. More life insurance or annuities or whatever. We do know what she's taking neat thing we see on the radio is something actionable for Hugh Grant and suddenly make some wholesale Chinese changes in what you're doing. We offering complimentary. Comments it's retirement review for that reason so we can command a sedan or about what your specific situation is and try to do. Design something that's specific to you. We also. Always try to keeping biblical. Frame of reference and viewpoint on what we do and that's why we always start this program was something from the Bible. And today hammering out of proverbs chapter three verse nine and chances are the lower with your wealth and with the first fruits of all your. Produce. Dan your Barnes will be filled with planning in your bats will be bursting with wine. Now that CN Bobble ease but I think as we would say when you get paid. You take the first 10%. And you give it away to good things that the lord would be pleased with. And you take the other 10%. And you save that for the future and I promise you if you follow that biblical mandate. That the other 80%. Will go far more than any peace camp the whole 100%. Aim in there and end this ties into the from a pleasing asked if I can. Whoever loves money never has enough. Whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income in this too is meaningless. Indians we said this repeatedly. That we talk about money on this program and we want you haven't. Comfortable. Had to be. Worry free retirement. The goal isn't the money money's just the fuel for your life and the things that are going to matter in your life. Our material. Relationships. Your relationship with god and the people you love the time he blesses you with in your hell for the most important wealth you have from those are the ones that you should focus on him. We hope you figure out the rest of it. What is been an interesting weekend here. And actually it's been an interest in king year run. But I get the sense and I think a lot of people are getting because we're sorry to hear this from people coming in to see this. Dead most people believe that we are heading towards some major reckoning. Not just in the markets. But in the world all you they're inextricably linked you can't give them what if one from the other but. But I ran across a piece this week which I found. Pretty darn interesting they headliner which is Goldman Sachs bear market indicator shows they crashed dead ahead. And that we should be worried. The last two times that this bear market risk indicator from goma sex was here. We just before the dotcom bubble burst. And just before the global financial crisis of 2008. And of course what happened next is vaguely familiar to most except the current generation of twenty something year old hedge fund managers. Who has never live to CE 20% or even 810% correction. And let me just isn't a sign before I continue the article say. There are a lot of younger advisors out here who hit it never. Seen what a real. Market collapse looks like. And that is why. Experience particularly in this area is so important. But there or other warnings the article goes on talk about what Goldman was seeing as an imminent twenty to 50%. Market crash. First of all here's what the basis from Coleman. Bear markets are inevitable. That is an important point they make your what you pretend in the back your mind. Bear markets are an inevitable. The average retiree will see three to five of them during their retirement years so that's an important thing you've got to think about so the question is. Is that if there's going to be a bear market it's win. And how being good is going to be and the problem. Is this. While bear markets are very obvious with the benefit of hindsight we can all look back to 2000 Nader to kick start crashing go oh yeah I mean we should've seen it coming. Problem is they are almost impossible to write to identify in real time interact actually in a way. So being a little too early. Aura. Even late matters less than recognizing. What are the signals to avoid. To keep from being caught and much longer decline in the markets. So there are two reasons for this first while the final three months of the bull market. Using US data tend to rise by as up to about 7%. The first three months of the decline. Is rather similar amount. So if you missed the peak in cell after the first remind your roughly right where you work. But the bigger issue in this is so important for me retirement planning standpoint because remember. After fifty or so you do not have time to make up losses. The bigger issue is avoiding further twenty to 25%. Declines. They usually follows ex. And the other thing you have to remember in this war come to you in your memory if you just think back bear markets don't occur in straight lines. There is nearly always a bounce after the first initial decline. Providing investors another opportunity to reduce risks if there are signals. At the time to suggesting further decline is is likely coming along. In other words we didn't sell the first time and it comes up a little bit that's the time to get out. The current upswing in equity prices is already among the longest and strongest in history and many investors are clearly wondering. How much water can this possibly go and in the four main reasons why Gorman believes investors are focusing on this increasing risk that bear market in these. Curb market is already relatively long live in strong bystanders of history. On many measures equity markets are expensive. By historical standards. Margins are record highs from raising the prospect that they might have peak and after years of extraordinarily low interest rates in QE. Which you've driven the supported financial returns we may be getting very close to a change. So here's the point this is the world's largest investment bank making these points. That's pretty amazing EB just think of that in his self here's Goldman Sachs warning people about this so we're warning you. And we're warning you because from a retirement planning standpoint. You flat cannot. Afford it you will not survive likely. If there's another 3040%. Downturn and you are retired and you're taking income at the time. That's how people run out of incoming that is the one thing. We do not want to happen to you so. If you would go to our website CS RP dot info. Make an appointment to come to see a simple cost you nothing. We'll sit down with few in in Tamer a plan that will do the following a make sure that if the market crashes you don't lose anything that's pretty darn important. But secondly gauge you to begin taking incoming you don't run out of income at some point down the road we'll show you how to create something similar to your own pension. Where you have a guaranteed income stream for life for you and a spouse and whenever the markets are doing well you be getting raises because of this. So common CSC SRP. Dot info. Tony. Air competition. Is strong. And please we don't ever want you to think that we think bad about our competition they love their families they're going to be in heaven a lot of them. We don't think. Anything bad about them except they work in a system. That their philosophy. Is that you always take risk with your money and kind of column sometimes 21 entry shoeshine boys. What ends up happening a lot of towns is when we have these expanded bull markets. Like we've had the last eight years. You realize that. It's really not that hard to make money in a bull market. You remember end. Not teen 96. That a lot of people were quitting their jobs and what were they becoming day traders computers were getting where you could actually use them. Home and before becoming day traders quitting their job and everybody was making money. Right up until we had the tech crash one of the biggest corrections in the history of the market. And a lot of those people went and got a job because they realize that. Maybe even a shoeshine boy can make money in an up market and the reason we're saying shoeshine boy is it's a little antidote here. Joseph Kennedy which was one of the this JFK's dad who had a lot of dubious. The business dealings. He was talking about it's actually a true story as far as we know Joseph Kennedy by all accounts was an extremely shrewd businessman and investor despite the fact. He had graduated. In economics. That was indeed there are rarely. Did get his shoe show and on Wall Street 1 fine morning and the shoeshine boy pat Malone. Asking him if he wanted a few stock tips Kennedy was amazed and intrigue and encouraged him to go ahead. Along the road a few ticker symbols on a piece of paper ending Kennedy later that day compared. The latest to the ticker tape and realized that all the stocks on Malone is listed made strong gains. This happened a few months before the crash of 1920 NAND. Said later Kennedy sold all his stock market investments over the next several months. Before the 1929. Crash. But Kennedy say had been caused this he said later in life many times he says if a shoeshine boy came per day where the market is going together. Then it's no place for a man with a lot of money to lose. The differs between. The average retiree today and win twenty years ago. Was twenty years ago he could be on the market you could take the risk because you didn't have a lot of money to lose. But now you have this one life savings this got to replace your income for the next may be thirty years. And taking risks now. Is not wise. Because most advisors out there are great in making you a fair rate to return when the markets going up. But I have no clue how to keep that money safe if we had a market correction like in 2008. Tony and Rebecca and the common sense retirement team air expert tees comes the end in safety. If you'd like to know all the safe ways to go forward in their retirement says that she could have piece of minding your retirement you give us a call 18 huh. 180687676. Say look us up on the way have at CS RP dot info. We've related to a lot of things today specific Suton. Time what she get to a certain point in life are member I have. I remember I have three children and that's hard to forget that I was reminiscing the Saturday of a conversation I had with my mom acid mom. And Tom guys so much quicker now that I had children and she said honey. Is not the children they share in old. Am thanks mom that he always keep she humbled that you don't wanna know the trees don't ask mom bit. That is it really is has begun to resonate with me is I've gotten older and especially working with retirees who come into our office or near that retirement red zone which is defined as five years before retirement. In five years after retirement that's when mistakes are amplified. That's when market corrections can really destroy. An investment play and is made to look like a retirement income play end and we talk a lot about time on the show are ready today more continued unpack that as we move forward. But one thing that you don't have as Tom on your side when you're that close to retirement so fewer are seeking nine and a half. It's time to begin to make that pivot into a more conservative style of investing so that she'll have to worry about Al living your savings. And in looking at things we see all of the town. Risk tolerance questionnaires we Fred mania articles and and research where the risk tolerance questionnaire. Asia really dear to protect the advisor number one and number sued their risk tolerance questionnaire doesn't really do a good job. Relating TEU are giving you the impact of losing twenty to 30% of your life savings while you're in the pay out phase of your retirement. I have article here from zero head justice from September the eighteenth and has acquitted hears specifically from Howard marks a record. But if act ASCII was a risk in investing. You would answer the risk of losing money. But they're actually risk in investing. One is still lose money. And the other is to miss an opportunity. You can eliminate either wine. But you can't eliminate both at the same time. They keep it light comedy navy where a guy is considering some activity. On his right shoulder. Is an Angel and a white room. He says. No no don't do it don't do it it's not prudent is not a good idea. It's not proper and you get in trouble. On the other shoulder. Is to dabble. In all red group with his pitch fork he answers. It's. In the end the dabble usually wins and and when they do battle against. The desire to get rich. Other Dan in pain it Thompson desire to be rich usually winds. That's Bob bubbles are created and frauds like Bernie market Barney made off. Give money sorry Bernie Marcus home hey hey hey look if you could not yet. How do you avoid being trapped by the double in eighth year emotional then you'll buy at the top when everybody is euphoric and price surprise. Tony that's what you alluded to earlier. And he'll set an annual cell. At the bottom what everybody is depressing prices are low bubbles don't pop when everybody is crying in their seep the cruiser returns are doing well. Thanks develops slowly and happens suddenly somebody told me that once and I can't recall who did this. That it that sounds like key in these cells led to achieve our interest in something that's not what you've been touted. It's not what's been the Billick gets it sold CE. And it sounds like something you'd like to see give us a call for our free financial review and hey I tell you what. Even better than that you get this a called a day instead an appointment to commit our office. Won't keep you a book. That is about Deke or retirement crisis and it was written by our very own Tony dale oh yeah. And at that he would he not practice and mood if you want me to 806876768. Or look us up on the web comments inch retirement planning docked copy. Thank you Rick you made me think hey about time. And time is the only non renewable resource. He's the one thing that we don't have much God's gonna gives him in his of course having just turned seventy do you think about this more than you used to. Time is not your friend. If you are in a market that is that like one we have now on the reason is it's already. One of the longest running bull markets and we know it. Is everybody who is knows anything about the markets in the history of knows that inevitably they changed so. There was a piece in a market arch. When the stock market finally implode just don't see warm. So here's here's what ten led to the writer Sean Langley news six. The prayer headline stock market shrugs off everything North Korea issue road terrorist act for her change Dragan this complacency shrug lofty value shrug Tron. Road. Whatever it is. Bye bye bye. Lance Roberts who by the way we quote. We've grown to several times on the show. Chief portfolio strategist for clarity financial. Is not one of those wild eyed alarm tests but. He illustrates his biggest concern at the moment. First of all this bull market cycle is on pace to become the longest ever. Regardless it will end and like all previously overvalued overextended over leveraged overly complacent. Bowl cycles and history it will end badly. Second. One of the hallmarks. Of a late stage bull market cycle is the acceleration in price is investors capitulate by. Jumping in as the price. Accelerates. This sickened that downturn in earnings particularly when sales are stagnating as they are now tends to be the demarcation. Line on all of this. So. What you have to understand is if you. Are looking at your life as a fifty plus person retiree. Too many heading toward retirement. He your goals are wow how can I get even another two or 3% out of my portfolio. Now that's probably which are being told by your advisor but that's not what your goal should be. You know more enough goal first goal is how do I protect myself. From losing any. Of what I spent my entire life creating here. Whatever you have safe. That is all you have to work with. For as long as you're going to live and who knows how long it's going to be. So your number one goal is don't lose money yet of course. His Berkshire Hathaway's. Mean Credo. But the second goal is tied to the first which is OK I have this. Portfolio I have these assets. I don't know how long I'm going to live but I do know I'm going to have to pay for my life. May have to pay for. Health care may have to pay for housing and food and all of it. I need income. So how do I make sure that. I can start withdrawing money from this. If the market does go to a massive correction and I lose twenty or 30% in my portfolio. And still need this money how my gonna make sure that the money additional just try not. The principal just evaporate. In the answering as you come and see us because we have plans that will. First double make sure you don't lose money that was the first goal right. The second part of that equation is make sure you do have guaranteed. Sustainable. Income. The opportunity raises in the income to Chris let's not forget about inflation. In income not just for one spells but for both. And lastly. And your passing. You would like to leave some of that to someone else. Whatever is left is going to go to your beneficiaries and most tax efficient way and that's part of what we do we do a lot of things. That's the first thing you take care what you taking care that we can talk to you about other things. Long term care. Social Security issues. Risk portfolios we wanna take a little risk on the side we can do that to me. I am as long as you've got your your sustainable income handle that's the main point. Tony that question is and what age I won't treat terror it's inequality income. And you've always heard the phrase time is money. Well a common sense retirement planning air goal is to make that true in your life. The calls for Rebecca and Tony nicely all the time is retirement is the time in your life. Sometimes when time is no longer money. You've got a lot of time in no money and that is just something that you should avoid at all cost. One of the best ways to save yourself up. To have time and no money is to take too much risk in this market. We want to show you how to avoid that risk. Tell. To do that very simple. Just come NCAAs and that's easy to accomplish go to our web site. CS RP dot info or call us if you wish 806876768. Those are both war but if you come to see as we were charged nothing for the visit we will sit and listen to you and in craft something in Chile team. If you like it if it seems to make sense to you you will do it if you don't we won't bug you. We wanna help people and those who have worked with us and we will by the way give you the names of them if you liked talks among. And then very pleased by it. The way we've done their retirement plank so come SEC SRP. Dot info. For a complimentary. Common sense retirement review. And thin you will be able to sleep well at night knowing it's all handled stick around. Welcome back to common sense retirement planning this is Phillip island. With respect picking Cade and Tony dale we thank you for listening we hope you're having a wonderful Saturday. It common sense retirement planning we're your alternative to the mainstream financial press. Everything we do this through capital investment group member Finneran and civic sometimes we talk about insurance products and of course. The guarantees for insurance products come from the claims paying ability of the individual insurance companies. And we want to be your retirement planner going into the future because you need someone who specializes. In. Retirement planning because if you have someone who is an investment planner and they take you into retirement with a good investment plan. It's a fact that a good investment plans sometimes makes a disastrous retirement plan. But calls the rules change when you start taking withdrawals out of your camp. It like to know more about it you give us a call at 180687676. Say. 180687676. Say the cassette to CS RP. He died info. You know life's tough enough retirements going to be tough enough without you worry that one day you're going to be broke. Things happen pay last week. I had Peta call me that. You know. When you when you're going to bear hunting which is a bucket list thing in my life becoming consent in June well the last thing you'd expect. Is for. An attorney to call you up for months I believe she said from make often make offers something but she said that she represented Peta. And it out was she when they were in a class action lawsuit in one of the people in the class action lawsuit would rough and raise the guide service and Alaska I'm going. Bear hunting in the Bishara. Game preserve off Kodiak Island Alaska and my guide is the his name his company is rough and rating guide service. Will Peta called me up in Tony happened to me in the room with me sausage lady I gotta put you on the speakerphone. Because I just could not believe this and she said G her job was she was warning to actually coming in and talk to me. And explain to me about cruelty to animals. And about. Did I really realized what was gonna happen. You know to this bear. Went out went out there to high and I was I was livid as an eight there right at the the base and into the Indian reservation. And I don't waste is not going to be waist. And you know that but anyway you know she can't tell me she wanted me to go to the Peta website and look this and she is would not give up. And our black lady I'm not going to the way I was getting so hot or not I was getting so mad finally I just hung up owner. And now we're just breathe in harder also aggravated Antonio looks at me kind of funny. And it took me in any finally confessed that he insists this whole thing. It that this was his best brands why which I know very well as you did a great job that I cherish GA hamburgers did you know she was vague and and now I think. Heard you say do you eat hamburgers when shake your door in my I don't know is going on in the air but can't beat it and so you know it's hard enough through life without. Your collagen pumping into. Throughout the middle of the day but it's I have ever at all not in the arts in that conversation that I think that this was some kinda Joker something because I think. I figured it was written she told me that it when I went out there that when I actually went honing that included me in the lawsuit. With either not holders to bring you don't Malaysia things. And that. And they recorded is an oddity here for generations been anyway who played on the air now maybe nine with brands like that. Who needs them hey you got a hand obligate Tony you got him but I would say. When it when that dust settles my friend he's just better be ready because when you think he's forgotten. Something it's gonna happen Philip. Is the original. Punk stir he's he's been he's done pull more stuff like this some more people than anyone I know so it's a rare event. So many gays to get him back. Well as he advertise your she's together whether upper ray and before. Under your desk and then that you might elsewhere heels and flip them off at Belmont from people call me. When you pick on some measures you love them I was right there. We're all in love color better element. Of Fuller hair back to reality her how. So I don't know if you hit would you have thought about what I'm gonna share with you you should. Because it is something we've talked about a lot there's an article by John mall the mall and economics. Tension strong coming this will be one of the most heated battles of a lifetime solitude we talked about pension system in my way. Where night talk about this I want you to keep in your mind. That the South Carolina pension plan is one of the worst in the country it's only 53%. Funded. So. Here's what. Article says this time is different than before most dangerous words any economist or money manager can utter and yet we hear people saying no time. In the next forty years we're going to see changes that humanity has never seen before in some cases never even mentioned. We've unleashed economic and technological forces we can observe but cannot entirely control. The bubble in government promises. Is the biggest bubble in human history. Elected officials at all levels have promised workers they will receive pension benefits. Without taking a hard steps necessary to deliver on these promises in this situation is going to end badly and it's going to hurt many many people. Where Rico is a good example. Already in deep do it before her mobile win and this was written before Maria which hit this week. Directly so I can imagine to keep in mind when I'm reading your. This is before what took place this week took place. Already a 123. Billion dollars under water. And choice awards are. There's simply no way the island can repay such a massive debt and now Herman damages and of course and Internet Maria damages. The creditors have less hope of recovering principle let alone interest. And Puerto Rico is a canary in the coal mine for pension systems. Across the country because here's the difference of corporation goes bankrupt. The court takes the assets and decides how to divvy them up and that is now what happened with the public bankruptcy. The primary asset of a city or county or state is why future tax revenue. From household businesses within its found its boundaries of cities and states. Don't have the ability to share their pension liabilities they are stuck with them. And we may soon be seeing an example of what's happening in Houston. Where 200 taxing into these are trying to come up with how they're going to pony up for the pensions they are same thing going on in Dallas. So throughout the country public pensions are not being funded. And this is a problem is going to get progressively worse and here's a way look at. The truth about pension liabilities. Let's assume you have a billion dollars in funding. And you're going to assume mcsame and percent compound rate returned. Which by the way is what these tensions have been assuming. So that means thirty years of one million dollars will grow to eight billion approximately. What if it is not a 7% directory 4%. Rate of return. Then it only goes to three and a half billion less than half of the future assets. In thirty years. Meaning. That every dollar that is not funded today means that somewhere between four and a dollar will not be here thirty years from now. Now the reason we bring this up in this article goes on for quite a bit that. This is a crisis that he's going to happen. Is it's already underway. Is state of Illinois in several cities. The state of Connecticut is in danger Hartford the city going possibly bankrupt. And I mentioned South Carolina self. Everybody loves the concept of having been guaranteed income which is what pinching diced the problem has these. Politicians have been making promises they can't keep. Whereas we can show you way to take. Your life savings and create. A guaranteed income similar to pension. But I'm like a pinch in it will be much much longer in his back and secondly it will have the potential for raises over time. And unlike most pensions it will be of income for two people. Not just the pensioner. And lastly. At the end of the last life. You can leave. With the remainder to someone. Which does not happen with pensions and pensions are these old annuities that they even knew it ties and you pass away the money just stops. So our concern. Is it they're going to be a lot of people. Thinking that they're going to get income. And they're not and now we have an even gotten into what excrement likely dampen the Social Security. You have to secure your own income stream it is imperative you do things. So let us help you do X. Go to our website CS RP got a info. Comment CS 8068767. Succeeding we will help you fashion. Eight life time secure. Income stream and you don't have to worry anymore. I threw back T Tony if we can't for just a moment dove which article way has some questions about decent night's I was taking when you were talking specifically. I'm I had several things I want ASCII specific to that article they came to my when you were talking about you're talking about query can be bankrupt and being basically a hundred and when he. A three billion dollars in debt. Some people may hear that and talk about this a little bit on the shy that some people might hear that and say so what how was I going to affect me in Greenville, South Carolina. There are other parts of article that I want unpacked so if you could answer that for me now rest decent announced today. Well the in the short answer is Witter's Greeneville or try non or or another state. The only way these tech these taxing entities are going to be able to try to pay for these pensions and their two ways are gonna have to cut benefits that's gonna happen. But to try to make up for they're going to increase taxes property taxes first oval business taxes secondly an income taxes thirdly. So an inning in essence of what this is going to do you said neighbor against neighbor for retirees against taxpayers. And it is going to mean I believe become one of the most heated battles of are. Modern times. And this is inevitable. It's coming. I don't have a lot of confidence art film not just wanted to add a lot of people that are listing this on Puerto Rican bond and I don't I don't think we know there are. It's his stint. Because of the nature of tax free municipal bonds. If you got us North Carolina South Carolina tax free municipal bond fund they can also lead Puerto Rican bonds to that. Which have a nice interest rate because they're very risky they have high yield. Yes I you. Our our. Junk bonds and one sounds so much better it's all about semantics sometimes that one out and ask another question indenture torque hookers are an endangerment and making a point here. All the things that I see here and especially it is not just a state run pension funds we've talked about Illinois we talked about Kentucky. We talk about South Carolina only being 53% funded and we know that is going. In. On the tax payers play in addition to many other things and lord help us if the Republicans don't pull through it. As far as Health Care Reform we get to a senior hey guess yes flat tax reform on Health Care Reform there so many things that are teetering on the edge of pull out disaster. So my point is everything that they government gets involved in seems to be a next. Word big east is government promises I don't want a government plane and here's a difference between the government and the types of Leon's and we work with. The types of play is that we work went on paper we don't have to depend on and hope it cross our fingers. And in just prayed it week it is 7% rate of return to actually be able to deliver on the future obligations. We can lean on and and work where and solid organizations. That can actually deliver. On their teacher promises that is a big deal in a big difference between our government entities number one. And I mean the other underfunded corporate pensions. They are the same people who were telling you to invest your money in the market. And Wayne your entire success or failure of your retirement play and on the whims of the market. And you see how it's working out for them but they're gonna continue to teach you that want to tell you keep doing. But at least. You brought up such a great point in his planning getting here at this age is frustrating debate. Well indeed it is to all of us because in the end and we already know the answered this question. Who do you trust more to do a good job with managing anything. The government. Or private enterprise. Here's an example all the hurricane relief this going on 80% 80% of the people first there. Where Christians. 80%. Of the relief efforts for Irma. NN and though hardly worry. Christian relief organizations FEMA was still busy trying to get do studies and get the paper filled out neither red tape. Theme it the name derived. So it's not it's the same situation who do you trust more to make sure your retirement is safe. Government. To government plane our private. Industry private enterprise and and that is why we wanna help you achieve that. If you're counting on your investment advisor to keep you safe by putting you in a balanced fund. In a target date retirement fund is the most your money have 20/20 five have written at the first of between you know target date retirement fund. We have clients coming in and tell us that hey I'm safe I'm in one of the target date retirement funds because they're safe. A target date retirement fund is basically made up of equities and bonds. And as you get older they spew it more toward fixed income which is bonds. I yield bonds corporate bonds government bonds but there's still bonds. In the old days when rates were. Sane. Bonds would keep you. You know from the risky in this of the stocks. Right now. The bonds are just as risky as the stocks are big calls the fact that interest rates may go plus the fact that. The government. The the faded. Is going to stop its quantitative easing. Alan Greenspan who say is. That it was irrational exuberance before the crash in 2001 into. Is saying now the same thing about bonds more than stocks. What we want to not happen is for you to think you're safe. And go merrily on down the road. It be like going through a minefield but not realizing there was a man failed it'll work out find you step on one you know and you'll be at U I mean you'll. People I don't worry about things. Well you don't do you realize you not be in a mine field and don't realize. I don't know if there's only a market correction today. A twelve months from now two years from now but I do know the average retiree goes through three or four have during his retirement and you have to have a plan that concentrates more on avoiding the losses that's got to be the first thing if you want to have a successful retirement plan. That's what we wanna help you create a common sense retirement planning. If you'd like to see all the ways to do that you give us a call at 1806876768. Look this up on the way and at CS RP dot info. I have article here at a zero heads in the title of it is it starts with a whimper ends with the bank. At defense preening bullets in yields higher for a longer. The Federal Reserve explained to trim its balance sheet is likely to began with barely a whimper for the markets. But there's plenty of potential for it to end with a bang. As a three decade bowl run for bonds gets killed off this guy's in nicely with what she were just talking about Philip. The gradual removal of their gravitational pull of QE or quantitative easing makes it upside grist for Yale's. Yields. Prone to exceptional acceleration. The whole setup is reminiscent at the 2000 millennium bug anxieties. But the dot com bubble we all knew you had become massively overblown. Did at the in Chile pop. And the fact that it will burst later rather than on Q. Is what made that crash even more spectacular. Say here's the other thing. Every bubble every correction looks different if you look ever history first of all. Long bull markets are followed by even longer secular bear markets that's affected history. Number one. Number two if you look back to 1929. If you look back in the eighties if you look back to 2001. That was attacked crashed. 2000 an eight was a housing crash which pushes vicious enter recession. We don't know what the next one's got a little light and there's no way to know exactly what is going to look like therefore there's no way. For hedge fund manager. Or an investment advisor to tell you that they can diversify the pain away because when the pain comes you're gonna lose a time to recover. You take that off the table. What is he could freely however rock solid play ending keep yourself piece of my on their retirement bring you don't have to worry about losing money. Where you partnered and that your Fave. With an organization. That really does have the claims paying ability. To deliver on their future obligations. Stop lying awake and worrying. About you'd whether you have a successful retirement plane or not and doggone it do something about it. Thank you I think they should know you went to me it's pretty dark in a term dollar opponent doggone it. Yeah. You talked about worrying. That often their dead you here. Somebody of the caliber magnitude Robert Shiller. Talking about being worried about things Robert Shiller is the guy who created the shallower the Case Shiller Index for real estate. He is then. Guy that created each. Schiller cape index price to earnings ratio and he's of course a Nobel laureate. And here's what's he actually came out recently said I'm more. That the stock markets and usually low volatility. Could mark the quiet before the storm. The Nobel laureate in the economics professor at Yale was what he desk. Head particularly. Alarming facts that are worrying him. The first is. The price increase. Just went step by step with the earnings increase. That is not a good thing in his view. Sure ratio as I mentioned earlier call BK appreciate it shows the price to earnings ratio based on average earnings. The last ten years is now over thirty the historical norm. Would be sixteen dollars a share so. That means people are paying unbelievably. Exorbitant. Prices for these stocks. And the second is. This carries significance. Because the only times that we've seen that cape peony higher. We just before the crash of 1929. In the in 1977. And mid 2000 warrant. And we all remember clearly what happened during those periods of time so. Childress latest analysis. I think is it is should be a wake up call for anybody who knows anything about the market. Meaning he didn't win the Nobel prize in economics and going thirteen for nothing. Here's a quote. It would definitely be negative. For equities. It would be a pretty big thing we are at high valuation and the only time we've seen higher was 29 and 2000. We could see a major correction. This is a worry. So. Robert Shiller is Rory. Shouldn't you be wondering why you were advisors orient. Your little little local non Nobel Prize winning economist. Advisor. He hinting anywhere you want you go and buy more stuff. In the U trail him you're worried in you'd like to go to safety and go to K she says no. All alone on goal don't do it. We're not worried were confident. We really are a common since retirement planning we're confident that movie we can craft something that would take story completely out of the equation. No worries mate that's kind of our little Australian way of saying they. But. We can show you how to take the worry out of it says that you have to. Worry about losing money you don't have to worry about running out of income. Yep for about any of that stuff. And with what is coming and frankly there's enough in this world Torre about a means we get older entropy never sleeps you know your health is going to deteriorate health care costs will go up god only knows. Literally only god knows what's gonna happen with our healthcare system here which is absolutely abysmal mess. But that's something that that you are going to have to prepare for one reason we are free we've talked before about long term care. All of these are worries in a lot of people have haunting him and we don't want them to haunt you so. We want to come and seeks. Won't cost to any game we will sit down and have a listen to what you're trying to do and craft a plan specific to your needs. So go to our website. Common sense retirement planning dot com or call us at 806876768. And let's get together and fix this thing you get rid of some of the worry. You have a 401K. If you're 59 and a half you have options. That we'd like to talk to you about if he can nine and a half he can do what's called an end server troll over to marry outside the 401K. Reason I bring that up is if you have a 500000. Dollar 401K. Or if it's only worth 250000. It's and it's a problem there what do you mean it it it says is worth five hour work it's only worth 250000. Tony was trying to tell you that in the earlier article here's the same thing this time from Deutsche Bank bank of Germany. Global asset prices are the most elevated in history. Torch banks gene Emery the credit strategist looks at the next financial crisis and specifically what may cause it does is add a zero page. And when it may happen and how the world could respond assuming it's still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash. Attention. 21 observation made bat read. We are in a period of very elevated global asset prices probably the most elevated aggregate throughout history. And that's what Tony was saying. The price is on your equities. And your bonds. Are the most elevated in the history of the world. And you say well I've got a good balance in my 40 in case he says an equally weighted. Bond equity portfolio. Has never been more expensive in history. He goes on to say we have been more expensive. But we are approaching the peaks of 2000. 2007. And are in line with the most stretched valuations from the thirties and higher than the 1929. Crash. Says however history suggests that all this mean reverting over the medium to long term in other words. You know these how prices they're gonna go back down to normal. One of these days. Sit in Tony was saying the cape is only meant higher before 2000 equity level here's what I'm saying is right now. Year in your 401K. In your equities in your 401K. And someone's telling you that these expert should tell you that that 401K really probably only worth about half. Of what is being valued right now. And it always reverts back to Maine if you really thought that if you thought one day you could wake up in six months down the road you can have half of what you have there. Then at that point. It's too late. So now is the time to get out of the equities while they're steel overvalued in you can lock in those gains rather than waiting. Till it's too late. To call us. 8676760. And you go who CS RP dot info and thank you so much for hanging witness.
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