Common Sense Retirement 10-28

Common Sense Retirement Planning
Saturday, October 28th

Common Sense Retirement Planning

00:50:33

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Good morning and welcome to comment since retirement planning and slow play and did you decide to show up this morning I'm glad I showed up this morning Rebecca did Philip didn't. Our dear friend for the decent amount esque you will show up for wireless slacker bear hunt he's not even millennial. And then can't you any. If you have never listened to the show before shame on you not skating but if fact if you and you probably know the we are the upstage a regional retirement planning show and if these recent retirement planners we also are the alternative to the mainstream. Financial press which is just as biases a bunch of political hacks that. The population to be the networks. And that basically what we wanna do is inform you can give you information that you're not likely to be hearing other places. Can help give you context in and make you think about. What your plans are for your retirement I mentioned that we retirement planners or our goals are first and foremost. Our clients never. Ever run out of income we we sort of apply these Stanford. University center for the aging model we choose to use the use of what they call retirement income generators. They've done studies and showing me that that the when the most important things you need to do in retirement is is heavily weight and sustainable guaranteed income it doesn't have risk attached to SMS. It's sort of the foundational part of what we do we do a lot of things. One of them is that we worked with a lot of to a trusted advisors from and we're going to be talking to Franklin met today you know of health care plan incorporated later. All about Medicare because it's that time here where you can sign up and of course I'm on Medicare beings have any sort so I hope to learn something myself today. We also have always done what we've done it common sense retirement planning with the biblical world view. And have always started this program the same way. And I just so happened to be reading your I re read through proverbs it's so it's so handy and not an accident certainly but that there are 31 proverb says there's one for every day of the month. And annex I love to read that any reduced disorder happens to come from one. On the thirtieth and I love this this is problem for just thirty starting at eight. Remove falsehoods and lies for me. Give me neither poverty riches. Beat me with the food a lot. That's that be full and deny you and say who's lord. Or. This guy be poor and steal them and profane. The name. We are tasked with with being good stewards of what God's given us in the Bible is chock full of PC wisdom. When it comes to financial matters and end. In matters of living and we were living in an age of of materialism. And shall on this and distraction and pride aid. And do you see this. She humble appreciative thankful. World view. We'll bring you true reaches into spiritual as well as is emotional cents. And make you wise or engine. Might want to ask you question ask way he'd that you never reported back viewed not talked about it but I I think he should report back. A couple of things you do your Bible study on Wednesday she never reported back on the first time you lit degree how that went well. It went well nights in a spike asked and my son how is school fun well it will be well that's very included thank you well. OK so so. You know I always pray I never done it before so I just pray about what should I talk about ninety. I was led to some real interesting things and in the Bible and a couple of other pieces and threw him out there for discussion and yes real interest in folks in the group and so that. That's kind of what the cool thing about small groups is. It is is is very you know personal and wrap your small group of sixteen people well we do you get a call a bucket group is a good reduced to I'll be well everything's water oriented you know those. The big tuna and sprouts and moment and then continuing. Ourself in fact our bucket group is is doing income of it cost him. Party that team at the depot inland from tonight and I'd this churches and so I'm dressed up like a gun fighter which. Which I actually leased to. I'll get my ass say again as I said before I don't think that that really count sister or step for Halloween because that's not something that you're not ordinarily but it is but I cannot use simple lobby go and party dress up like. Bet man or some little everybody else of the off. Bet that now. But I'm not this is something I did back. You know fifty years ago I was a gun fighter and a you know western what prompts you you know where he told me you have I have good bottom twins twin fast draw pollster with with with rumor about 357 magnate carry water guns. I'm carrying real. That sounds safe we'll anatomy load it. No no all right cal out of it well enough about Mickey let's moving right along. I am I ran across a piece that I thought was so interesting. By Lance Roberts. There's title of which is Dowell 500000. And this is gonna give you perspective on what is happening right now and how very varied different out of control actually. Let's say go all the stuff I wanna give Franken your first. Forgive me because I'm I'm so used to doing things the same way. OK so let me introduce to you deed charming and intelligent Franklin had in visor with health care planners and whenever we have. I need to send one of our clients to somebody when when it comes to health care or any of these issues these are the people we send them to Julie paying. And car or. Frank here in you're a wizard when it comes to make your nest we wanna talk about. One that we gonna talk about that's when my favorite subjects. Man you're exciting I'm not I'm a boring guy. I like I like to read insurance policies in outside you're hit at parties I'm on the awesome yeah end. Yeah I would know Medicare it's at time of the year where where people can it's the annual election period where people can look at their drug cards and they can look at their advantage plans Medicare Advantage plans. In if they. Think they need to they can go ahead make it change. Most people. Every year let's change that every year changes happen. Doctors a lot of networks. Formula Ares change. Hospitals go out of network like we had last year where agree the hospital does not have Humana gold choice in the local school applause. Isn't so. We had to move a lot of clients that were relying on Greenville hospital system is a lot of movement like right here they know that before Clinton got a letter before I get an I had the option to changer and that's what this annual election period is something these kind of things happen in the industry. They have this. I guess is from. October 15 to December 7 with a seven weeks. Where they can make changes as that we help people do that so we look at their drug lists we'd look at their advantage plans. And we helped them make good decisions based on facts like. This drug is no longer on the formula aryan is gonna cost you an extra 500 dollars them. A month if you don't make a change something good to know. Oh yeah it is a good thing to know so what we do is we find money for people and we never trying to get them spend more money were always trying to find. How they can spend less money and let me ask you sent and how did you been doing this. I'm pushing thirty years I can't believe it. I started in 1988. I got licensed in the state of South Carolina and in. Got real serious about and in 89 and went to work for a company called American republic. Little company and the Moines Iowa. And I stayed with them for sixteen years which was awesome they were a great company they did it the old fashioned way client first. Do the right thing all the time it was one of those old ms. western companies of which is great and so. As things happen in life and love management changes some time so after sixteen years with this company I was and I ended up their regional vice president. So I head offices in Charlotte than. Tennessee and he hit the right time it well I did I was on the road all the time and so there came a point where they it's been real interesting they wanted to doubled down on. Individual health insurance they thought that was the future and I said. Now I don't think so guys I think it's the Medicare market because the baby boomers are coming right there's 101000 people turned 65. Every single day in America. And I thought while Kazmir who we should be in that vein and so. We departed ways in 2005. And that's when I started health care planners. And I went askew and I'm sorry Tony I'm doing and abuse at this is it near and dear to me because where it would help so many people. In this space what we see and now when that rat Packers dissent than that you said. It's about marriage counselor frank he says that active listening is healthy and reflective listening is helping some bigger piece and then that TD said. But before idea that I want to mention how. We as an organization are able to leverage franking use him in this space it's a wonderful saying. Because a lot of times we have people that come in who need and are seeking now it's on peace of mind and retirement are having on the lot less worrying retirement. Well what if we can extend that beyond just retirement income space with their break. What if we can't help it usually find people come in with a stack of books and Tony you have one right here. A stack of stuff. And they can you begin at their mailbox there's so much material. They Brady and they're gonna further back out bring you know Ollie and which I don't need to see it right adding Tim to call you because you can't be off things off people. So what we find is people are making decisions a very big decision about health care costs and health care coverage but they're not confident making that decision. Sat I to question Steve. One is you it's said that people had the opportunity to review their play and that sounds least to me. Says is this an opportunity where every year every person should review their plane to see something that's better out there that's my first question. And number see what is the biggest mistake that people make when it comes to Medicare. To the questions. We think it's really important that everybody reviews every year every year so what we do for our clients. We do day. Mailer where we mail. A little drug list where they can fill out the form and tell us what their drugs are every year. We do a huge meal itself. Couple thousand piece mailers that we we put out fear and that given your pray we have to be so what happened was. Back in 0506. When these things started. We were nine eve we nobody knew how these things we're gonna work if they'd just come in. And we set out it's good for you this year it'll be great next year and then January came in our phones started bring it. Petra it's not on the formula there anymore and a side that has enough fire old man and so we just said we're not gonna do like this anymore we have to be proactive. To our clients and that's what we do we're proactive. It's nice on a couple of levels one. We touch a lot of people only really like our clients and we kind of catch up with them and that's the real blessing of it we love it when we can say hey. It is going to be good for you next year is double what we did this year is gonna carry over but. This year we have this situation we're. Walgreens is not going to be eight. Preferred pharmacy of one of the drug cards for use last year that came up. Number one on the Medicare dot gov site and that's how we do it. We don't trying guests this stuff. So what we do is we put everybody's medication in the Medicare dot gov site and we sorted by what is going to be the least expensive over the course of the whole year. OK so we the bottom line is actually the bottom line all right again and that's the way we we trying to approach this. We are not license with every single company. But if the company that comes up is number one and it's not one we represented. We help them get enrolled in the correct one for them because it now yeah because the bottom line this one is it's not about me. OK it's not about me it's about you and and and saving the web benefit to have won this this last weekend. I told the guy and he couldn't believe and I said look it's more important for you to say 400 dollars than me to make thirty bucks you have. Let's let's get into semi dead nuts and bolts from Medicare because it is so bloody confusing I mean look at this. Book it's. And Edberg is wonderful he it's wonderful yeah it is wonderful life and god will do enormous list gasoline here let's let's let's just pretend. This person listening is on Medicare they don't know anything about Medicare. Because it is confusing even from I have it in confusing for me except. How will start with how much is part a coverage cost. Doesn't cost anything and that's a good thing because that that's what's your Medicare when you get your paycheck it's as Medicare. That's what leads to part. BP which cost you something which right now it costs a 134. Dollars. Now five years ago was a 104. Prior to that it was 94 and it's the same for everyone irrespective of income rage over that is exactly not truthful and honest attitude exe. Yeah the basically what happened in ninety in 2003. The Medicare miners in the modernization. Act. Bush signed it in the law. And it. Your part B is indexed to your income. OK so it's in its indexed in the problem with that sometimes is a person who makes well that and here's the numbers. If you make over 85000 dollars as an individual 470000. As a couple. And you're gonna get indexed it if you're over then it's gonna cost you a little bit more money for your part B. What happens is people. May very Macon agreed salary at a company. So that was 2016. They go on Medicare but. 2000 sixteen's what they're using now is so no other income is lower in 2017. But they have a penalty because they add back uninsured make sure ouster in. That's why it's so it was so we'd we'd like to look at that and we wanna make people when your clients come in we always make them aware of that. That there could be an index situation where they could pay a little bit more for their part B and then also carries over in their part either drug card there's a little bit of an increasing your exemption penalties for part B is nearing a penalty funeral EU to their windows. There are windows of opportunities sign up for part B. And so if you don't hit one of those windows then you get a penalty the penalty for not signing up for part b.s like you. And here's one. This is worth taking hits somebody. Is if somebody. Retires decides to go on cobra and is now working. And he thinks he has credible coverage he doesn't cobra isn't credible. A publisher working. OK so he would have a 10% penalty for the eight years so part Beagle is up 10% a year for every year you don't have it has slippery snake you know so people think they haven't they don't have. As far as credible coverage so we want to look at that so we want it you know so when they come in we we we ask a lot of questions. We wanna get to know them. Because everybody's different and it. A referral onetime misleading. A Calder opposite somebody refer you to emea and you turn 65. And she said I guess you're gonna tell me you have the best thing for me. As soul man I don't even know who you water there's this long silences. Way to keep talking. And so but that's it we wanna know how you think about health care how you wanna receive your health care. We want to make you aware of the timeline of when you should sign up for part B. And what your options are less pop list let's give him some specifics. So party we don't pay for what is covered part in our days hospital anything can happen in hospital which is. Great. Mainly with supplements. On you by Medicare supplement the supplement those. Your party a hospital usually don't have any. Cost at all in your hospital so it's a 100% covered if you don't then you have like a thirteen 160 dollar party deductible that you have to pay. And you have co pays if you're in their Longar Longar. I used as kind of gloss over that a little bit because who's in the hospital longer than thirty or sixty days and I had a client. Two years ago he used in the hospital for a year whole animal in so if you get into that you don't have anything to supplement your Medicare you just have parred eight. He can be out thousands and thousands and thousands of dollars and that's what people look for ways to cap those losses somewhere or to fill in the gaps. So what are some things that you would say that people have a misconception that Medicare covers that it doesn't cover. Well Medicare does not cover long term here plate then again Medicare does not cover long term care DG. You probably do. It 55%. Of the American public. Thinks that Medicare covers long term care 55%. That's the big one yes yes that's the big one just I was hoping you'd say. Yeah it would end. In really Medicare really covers a lot most everything outside of that. If you have skilled nursing situations like give hospitals staying you have to go to a skilled nursing facility area of the stroking you go from the hospital to a skilled nursing facility. He got a hundred days with Medicare in a skilled nursing facility and is going to be paid for. You have a co pay Hamlisch and if you have a supplement horse you wouldn't have a co pay because it pays the 400 days. But that. A Medicare does a good job I'm I'm a real fan of Medicare they they do well. There's a few little idiosyncrasies that they don't pay certain tests being but it's negligible the big one is. Long term until you're here. A lot of people. Have lots of questions about this or has that they will reach out to you and none in your firm to see if he could be of some assistance. Teed him what question that what else. Part B what does that cover part procedure doctors I. So we used to always say. How many hospitals can you be a one time women won and how many doctors conceive. While you're in the hospital and leading up to the hospital because he a lot of doctors her so your part be issued doctors your outpatient. Benefits. Outpatient surgeries. In an ambulatory surgical centers like if you had cataract surgery that would fall under part B. So that's really it's suing you think about. Hospital. It's part today and when you think about doctors and outpatient services that's part B. And in part. As about the only thing that you say it is easy to remember I'd just be honest on the Amman has blown right now open it's it's funny. Because there's parts of Medicare there's part a part B part C. Our deeds but then there's also plans like Medicare supplements. A and B and CNF Finn INJ. So there's all these letters and it is a little confused me daddy. Exactly. So I'm. The case some is as. Head Medicare for awhile and probably. Is is many changes as you just mentioned. They probably need to be looking at what they have. Yes I'm there's some some things that are happening currently. There we're kind of encouraging people to look at. Of four years and years and years and years the F plan which is a 100% coverage Medicare supplement fills and all the gaps unit basically go to the doctor you paying nothing. Are you go to the hospital he pain nothing. And congress. But two years ago decided. This seems like a lot of coverage. We need to do away with that so after 2000 in nineteen the F plan will no longer be sold. Okay and along with the the with the C plan so would they want everybody to pay their part B deductible there's a deductible on part B that the F pamphlet for. So those plans are going away. Now the G plans seems to be like the best plan. But what happens is when people have health conditions now this is with Medicare supplements. You have to health qualified. To change supplements you have to ask that they we ask him about fourteen questions have you been. Hospitalized the last so many days have you had cancer the last two years we are there's just fourteen questions or fifteen questions that we ask. That'll qualify them to change to Medicare supplement. What happens if somebody holes under their F plans for a long time. An eagle pass those two years. There's nobody coming in that insurance is the law of large numbers so the it's approving of people so you want people coming in that are healthy boss that the people older female that are near their unhealthy. In his long visitors and we're infusing their block the business who knew underwritten healthy people. Then the black stays healthy the new guys Syrian under their cumin and offsetting the cost low when that block it's cut off which you will have to 2019. F plans will have a tendency to go up a little faster than they should. Well an overall in and we've talked about this a lot here on the show and just overall medical costs just in general I mean even outside of Medicare. Overall medical costs have gone up 218%. Since 1996. And this is seven that we talked about here too we're talking about retirement complaining Greeks and so forth. Is the ability of in the inevitability inevitability rather of health care cost eroding the cost for the buying power assure security programs. Which is why you need. Experts to talk to my weeds and frank in the day he's the guy he's our go to guy in in June and car of health care planners so. Two when you hold them directly you can 86428835. Or six or give it to you again. 2883546. And of course if you wanted to have an overall retirement plan obviously you need to have some common sense would come to common sense retirement planning and CS RP dot info that's us. So we can. Can help put you with people like frank and other trusted advisors attorneys accountants and so forth the most importantly we can make sure the you have an income which can outlive no matter how long you've Dooley of and no they did you have your basic needs. Paid for. Wanna start with those rigs so. Go to CSR PI tenfold and come and visit us and stick around we'll be back after this. Welcome back to common sense retirement planning and Tony dale with. These lovely Rebecca Kincaid a lovely intelligent Rebecca can fade if it's definitely not another pretty face. But we are bereft of our dear friend Philip first he goes often hunched Bayer for two weeks and he's gone Danny goes off to this. Business thing in Dallas I mean come on. So she will is. I can 120 for the Bayer today then was being chased bad co both. In clubs with the Sam all at once. I think he's he's just chasing big Smart. Intelligent people in Dallas that's where he reminded Alistair this. Being called journey and it's all these guys are mastermind mastermind always relieved released clever people. Never stopped running as one of the secrets of life for sure which by the way is one of the reasons we do these shows we did this is a bad information is about train equip you with important things you know and so I wanna start. This segment. We've a piece by Atlanta robber and mentioned it it topic this year. Dal 500000. So much into this closely Lance Roberts writes some really good stuff and I I like this piece. Both markets are more fun than bear markets. Bull markets also sell financial products services offerings Wall Street makes money selling these services to main street. And the financial media makes money. Advertisers market their warriors and being bullish also get slots abuse and likes and comments and shares. Because born markets through when the emotion of greed. Erases all the previous memories of bear market losses. And the problem we are being bullish all the time. Is that it's also very dangerous. And this is particularly the case in late stage bull markets such as the one that we are in now. Investing strategies like buy and hold and dollar cost averaging become popular even though they are absolutely guaranteed to leave you will short of your financial objectives in the future. The biggest fallacy pushed by a Wall Street today is something called compound returns. You've probably heard of these. So. In thirty years of the Dell were to grow and just 5% annually. Using compounding. It would hit 500000. However. If the Dow actually compounded return to 5% in the future. Is Morgan Stanley suggest. It would have to have done so in the past. And would already be at 500000 would it not. It is not. And there is a huge difference between compound returns an average. Returns. So the historical return for the market since 19100 including dividends as averaged a higher rate than just 5% now that is. The nominal return not the inflation adjusted return. So the Dow should actually be much closer to a million in just 500000 to work compounding by. Here we are sitting around 23000. Mark. And why is back. Because crashes matter. And this is particularly case when it comes to your financial goals and investing time price. So you think about this if buying a whole investing worked the way dvds preached. Then. Why are these financial statistics of 80% Americans so poor and the answers are. Destruction of capital and lack of savings and time those are the three things that debt. Are not taken into consideration of the talking about compounding the returns. Because she lost capital in other words this is such as happened to most of you back in 07 and a way to mark crash market crash usual lost all this capital. To be regained that you also have to take into consideration the time lost in just getting back to even so you cannot actually get back. And we don't live forever in time is ultimately our enemy. And after two major bear markets the majority boomers are simply unprepared currently forgiveness. So. On topple this we're facing a massive pension crisis we've talked a lot about this on this program but it is trillions of dollars of underfunding. So who wouldn't love a world where everybody just comes and invest some money in the market tries 6% annually and everyone's a winner but unfortunately. That is not the way it works. And the S&P 500. For example the novel are returned and has been. Somewhere around 67% range. But if you take in the losses it drops in an in and adjust for inflation is down around 4%. Net doesn't sound is six he does it. No it doesn't. So. Thirty years ago people who were hoping to retire at that time find themselves now thirty years later unable to do so. When markets back to the second highest level valuations. In history. The truth of this is this has nothing you do is being bearish is just simple math. And current valuations virtually everything is priced going forward for a decade of zero rates of returning show why. Here's what he saw him about. Throughout history bull market cycles are only half of the four market cycle the entire market cycle which is a four ball and your cycle right. So during bull markets the cycle. Economy bills up all this excess and and it is reverted during the bear market cycle. And as sir Isaac Newton said what goes up must come down by the way as I told you sir Isaac Newton lost. Everything you add in one of these market doubles Smart as he was. Beyond the short term this time he's different he's one of the most dangerous sayings out here because the unwinding this current bubble is. Going to come and we don't know win. Here's what we now. Is we've talked about many times comment since retirement planning. From a retirement planning standpoint. The most important thing you need is not. To make sure you have some good diversified investments in your buying and holding in dollar cost averaging you need to make sure that you have taken care. How are you gonna pay for housing food. Health care. Your basic needs in retirement we just talked to frank about about Medicare that's good that's a real thing health care costs. So we we recommend what Stanford university's center on the aging recommends which is retirement income generators those are. Are guaranteed sources of income. That will pay for those basic needs. And in our case we have photo rigs bad debt actually have inflation. Protection built into them to help you stay up with inflation. So the first thing you have to do is figure how do you stop the bleeding. We don't want you to lose money in the next market crash as I pointed out Q we believe once coming. We want to make sure that no matter what happens in this insane world you will have incomes so please please come and see. One of our common sense retirement in nineteen. Inco Lucy SRP. Dot info CS RP dot info or call us 1806876768. Incumbency as. Talk about your articles Morey we may meaning. That just a few pages I think it's very imported in Alice in a little bit of time to issue an ass sort of discussing the impact of capital preservation. When you talked about. Hal when you least capital and I'm going to again reflective listings this is important rights and I'm gonna repeat back to you what I heard and you tell me. If this is accurate and the concern he's been seeing counselor here this. Again we had Avery you know towns are hard 2008 happened assailant furniture it was wonderful Allah that selling it. As an employee I was selling it from my house because of her and maybe at the right. But what things he says and is. That when you lose the amount that your compound in on so we have a hundred dollars. And for example we have a 30% loss. That's what she Maine about capital preservation that we aren't able to preserve capital in the market right. Right you have fear a better way you look if you had a 50% loss. You need a 100% gain just to give back to where you orbit to lost all of the intervening time why you were doing that. I think that is such a misconception. I guess that people just have. But could it seems that people are riding this high and we talk about this in the office earlier today there's something called recent C bias right. Says the measure recent event is what is going to dictate future decisions. Well the most recent event today is that there weren't as long consecutive bowl market. Well people forgot about it here's the other thing I asked people and I commend deceive me. Is out will say today and dean had a major fundamental difference between today. And 2000 innate and they'll say net. Nine years. That's the difference isn't and that goes exactly to your point that you were talking about not only. Would do you nests and leaves the capital preservation be civic you also lose to Tom that you need to even get back to even. But listless take a step further because here's the thing that people let's let's first of all recently bias is an emotional response. Every decision people make when it comes to investing is it based on one into motion to see you grief or fear. And what is happening now he's greed is in charge all of these people who are just what they call retail. Investors mom and pop investors they're not experts. They're they got a 401K and IRA or whatever. And made all the knows kind of what they're here and unseen enemies CNBC your Fox Business or what and they don't know. And all we're hearing is old. Market so people or get yourself this alone forever now to get some land right green kicks in and so right now. Bullishness is that the hype is higher than it was in 2008. Higher than it was then and I remember this is do you. The when people thought oh this will just go on they were thinking the same thing in 2000 I remember that clearly in and trying to talk people out of taken that risk. But right now the Smart money lots of Smart money is on the sideline right now because those guys that don't really sophisticated investors they understand. This this Mexico county we were talking about earlier that the cycle has to complete which is it goes up just like a roller coaster hits top and then he goes down and eventually it'll come up and then they advance the way cycles are. Where the top of a cycle that's the last time be the worst time people should be getting into the market and yet but they are being just herded like she'd. Well and may not Nell you see people getting in the market because they're likely played it we waited it hasn't crashed hasn't crashed at gist doggone it we're just gonna go for it. And what's gonna happen that we talked about this last week an app got some some material here that I'm gonna discuss here in a minute. But what's gonna happen this time is going to be very different is. Even if we see. A small drop even if we see a five to 6% drop. That is going to send people running for the exits because you've got retail inexperienced investors jittery and there that to your point. Moved in function on emotions money is emotional and if you look at the MSNBC there's agreed indicator. Annie it is flash in and marine big town is how greedy it is. I people are lonely let me address something you say this is so important one of the things is different now that wasn't happening in 07 only in this is a big the deal. Is nearly 40%. Of investments are now in in automatic algorithm indexed product oh yeah ETFs. 40% OK here's the problem. Deirdre it's their computers when markets start going they just they just automatically start to sell what if and we have. I'm RC thirty different exchanges now. Thirty different so when when everybody decides oh my gosh I gotta get out of the same time. Who is going to body. What's being sold. At least at the ask the asking price because what happens in a situation like this is if nobody's buying in the price of that. Offering their stock is disk and implement in mutual fund keeps going down down down Tillie is a point to somebody says okay I'll buy it bet my. Which means you are going to have lost whatever they damn difference was between. Where was when the started and where it ends up when when somebody finally is willing to buy it. It's the whole analogy I hate to be cliche aids and that is so true. Being in a movie theater smelling smoke you should leave the end not wait for the alarms to go off and everybody tries to get out of the movie theater. And Rebecca. How many times. In week two we try to tell people. What's going to matter to you when you retire. Error is not what the market is doing good how are you going to make whatever you have last you for when you're thirty years. Well and it makes sense now to locking and that overvaluation because people who were coming in now on mentioned this last week to people who were coming end. Aren't necessarily. Going in on the roller coaster where their arms up in the year. You know they have their arms wrapped tight around their chest because are nervous about it they have this burning sensation saying something's feels. And this year against something doesn't feel right in with all the stuff fiscal and are in the market I mean just things that we've never seen before. What thing out that Al say you were talking about cycles. One of the things I'm experiencing now and I had a really sad moment the other day with gave up my eight year old was shoot seven Q8 she dissolves on the box. Abe is losing teeth. So that's the cycled it orient well she came downstairs archery and paper and he said mommy. You Tooth Fairy. My house watered NASA Marty asking me that and she said well I found this bracelet that I gave to the teeth theory injured grower might argue in my drawers. She said Ari you said then there's the moment right. If she sat really quietly first decade she would that mean she said Tuesday now and so I told her he did not. Well I felt like she shattered Marjorie site I don't want their seekers to come out either but that's the cycle that orient right. That's the deal we old at work on and there will always comes back one day her daughter were asked her about the two theory. But one of the cycle as it were in and one that would definitely calmed is the next stock market crash in is going to be faster and bigger than acre ever before. This is a sought an article last Simon black. US stocks have been more expensive. Only two times two cents. 1881. We talk a lot about Robert Shiller he is a Yale economist that created the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio and pork cape. The S and p.'s above 31 and the last two times a market reach such a high valuation. We're just before the Great Depression. In 1929. In the tech bubble in 1999 and 2000. But there's nothing about today's bull market Tony simply put. Everything is going all at once you re just talking about Newton. And from my money sank rumors and must come now and now one of piggyback on that suit. I think need and super intelligent GAAP. But he wasn't a financial advisor he wasn't a complainer right. It doesn't Maine the that your not Smart it means that you need to seek advice for people who know what their duly. And we common sense retirement plane we know we're doing. We create Briggs all day long if you went column rigs are rips when crater ripped warrior retirement income play in which hair out of every one A dice it. But what we wanna do. I assume one at one to protect she. Morgan Stanley Wright based on a quantitative perspective disperse into valuation and growth rates are among the lowest in the last forty years. Stocks are at their most idiosyncratic. Since 2001. Ask yourself. With stocks trading at some of the highest levels in history. Is now the time to be adding more equity risk this is what we're just talking and now. When securities prices are high as they RD day the perception of risk is needed people forget this is there recently bias that we were just talking about. But their risks to investors are quite elevated. We haven't seen a 3% down day since the election. In it that's holes through the end of the year it will be the longest streak in history. But that's just one issue. Remember we also have. Slowing Goebel global growth. Record high debt. Detained chiller potential new regular war with North Korea opened little rocket man. A rising world power in China and cyber terrorism just to name a few of the potential pitfalls. Elie is dumb money rush is again. The biggest stocks get even bigger. Despite their. 31. An atomic exceptional market risk more and more money's being made it without eating notion of risk. What happens when these uninformed. And value agnostic investors have to sell. Achievements are emotional creatures. Only did finally see that three or even larger down day investors will rush forward the exes is as an art article I was alluding to before. The computers will pile on selling so just even that 3% Tony is going to perpetuate. A downhill. At piercing Chevy Chase Christmas night and already sprays. The stuff on the little sled any guys. That's I just envisioned because he's just going to create this perpetual fault of the market and when the wave of selling columns who will be there about high. As these passive funds dumped the largest stocks in the world will see an air pocket. Nobody will be easier to hit the bid this is exactly what you reduced just grabbing and when the drop comes it will come faster than anyone expects. While most investors are ignoring risk and even if stocks go up for another year which same day. It's simply not worth the risk to chase them higher that's the greed factor were reduced talking about because a downturn. Will be devastating and the question is where will GP. For and where we EP when the devastation comes. Will you be crying in your shape our will you be saying thank goodness I made that decision today. To get a CS RP dot and our common since retirement claiming dot com. It really hear you it's such a good point you were happy. Right now what greed does is it it makes its in this PC is it in Las Vegas she seated casinos all the time. People will win a little and then they went a little bit more and and they keep this signal maybe just one more hand maybe I can make. Is it more. Any news that hand where they start with a losing began and once the losing begins there's another thing that comes into play emotionally. Is very hard to stop why you're losing because you keep taken I've got to make this up I've gotten a gambler got it which which is what it is OK so. Always talked about essentially today has been about equities and stocks. But what is different this time and he kind of mention it we she's dead I wanna give you a number if this doesn't blow your brains out. Listen to this it was announced this week that the amount of debt created in the world is now. 220. Seeks trillion dollars goods lawyer is nursing that is more then. Everything for a nonstarter for. 341 trillion the entire war only produces 226 trillion gross domestic product types are get the numbers reversed. That is that is insane and what is that debt is a large amount of it is bond loan now one of the bond gurus. A guy named Jeff good logged double lines Jeff go under lock. Who is usual raking nice one of the experts and experts and bonds the so what he said it's an easy easy he has bought he sell you and manages bond funds he said things. I'm not a big fan of bonds right now all called the bond king as what they call him in the head this cruises from an article in Vanity Fair. I haven't really been a fan of bond for the past four years even though I manage them. Any sane I'm urging investors. To be very light on bonds because interest rates have bottomed out in May now are beginning to rise gradually. And they have been doing this. But they are getting ready to do it much more quickly and my job on my higher pay half my clients is to get into the other side of the valley IC coming. I will feel like I've done a service by giving people through what is coming and that is why I'm still in the game I wanna see how this movie. Blood. It cannot in well because of the manipulated behavior of central bankers. European interest rates should be much higher than they are and went strong he realizes this he's the ECB European market guy. Their version of Janet Yellen the order of the financial system will be turned upside down any won't be a good thing. Things go down eventually we'd be in an artificially inflated market for stocks and bonds. Around the world. And my job is to find scary things. And my critics say we'll find seven risk for every one that exist. I'm guilty. That's my job my job is to try to find out what can go wrong. Not to cover my ears and hum and pretend everything's dry heat it is better to keep your eyes open I could have written that because that is how. If he's in a nutshell. Our philosophy of common sense retirement planning is before we deal with any other thing. Let's get the risk the heck out of our clients' lives in a time when we're we're in more risk. Floating around than ever in my lifetime. So we do dad and a number of different ways one of the first things we do is we want to make sure with with. The most important SH unit which ones they're going to be generating income range. Income. Reliable income jailed generators. The Fed is taken care of and if markets go down it is not going to affect your income. Which is not what most investment firms are doing out here. They are putting you in mutual fund portfolios. And telling you to take 4% or 5% would drawl from this when you retire. Which sounds great if the markets going up but if the market go will not win the market goes south. In your taking net income and suffering losses and evaporation of your principal the same time. There'll come a point when the principal is gone baby gone and and there's nothing you will be able to do about it at that point one now is it time to do something about that to protect what you have amassed. And with a portion of it make sure that you have a way to generate income to pay for your basic income needs which are housing. Food and medical and those sorts of things and there are plenty of other things there are areas where you feel like taking some risk weep we can do that too. After we've secured. The most important part of your assets that's what retirement planning isn't so please. Please while things are good and things were at the top common CX. Go to CS RP got in front candidacy SRP dot info. Call us feel like 806876768. What is the top fears in retirement east to be Tony people were worried about out leaving her assets. And the other one seconds and that was increase health care costs in being able to go forward. Health care costs in retirement I have an article here at a zero heads and the title of it is forget crisis. Government corruption tops America's biggest fears. Mae and where have we come where and we accountant. This fears that really keep people up at night Chapman University survey of American fears poll pulled ever 12100 people. A ends in the findings were pretty stunning. Corruption of government officials came in topping 2017. Was 74 point 5% of US adults saying it makes him afraid are very afraid. Corrupt government officials was number one American health care act number two pollution of oceans rivers and lakes. Pollution of drinking water. Not having money for the future in high medical bills. Holy Moly we can't deal with the oceans in the drinking water but we can certainly take care of that other stuff. And I highly recommend you do something about it don't put this all for the day put off another minute coax it down from your computer. Since I quit talking came. Could our web site. C is our peace. Dot info call us if you'd rather 8676761. Way or another you need to calm and see one of our. Team members of comments and retirement planning. And let us help you and thank you so much for listening come CS.
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