Common Sense Retirement 10-21

Common Sense Retirement Planning
Saturday, October 21st

Common Sense Retirement Planning

00:50:41

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Good morning and welcome to common sense retirement planning I'm Tony dale. We have. Finally my best friend and partner for nearly twenty years Philip Allen freshly back from slayings in monster. And Rebecca Kincaid one of these comments and retirement planning team. Who was holding the fort well Phillip was awake I was a lot of hard work double time knowing you pull that off. But did show is the alternative to the a mainstream financial press is what we've always saying we we really are we. We are of course retirement planners but our goal on this program is to try to inform you we give you some. Some context to what you see going on around you which by and large you are not getting from the mainstream press nor by the way for most of the big Wall Street investment firms so. We are not. Investment advisors that we do. Investments. We are retirement planners meaning that is our focus we want to make sure people have enough income first and foremost what we call rigs. Would make sure that people every com retirement income generators. To pay for the essentials in life in the end we talk about the investment side risk. Everything we do we do through. Through how Madison avenue securities members pigments and frequent anymore met him a little bit later and everything we do on the show. Ease. Something designed to inform but not to get you to run that may be wholesale changes in what you're doing in your investing. The other thing it's. We would say you probably the most important thing is our world view is these very much informed by their faith and we for that reason always begin this program was something from them able. And one of my favorite verses from the Bible. It's proverbs TN twenty to. And it's say is the blessing of the lord. Is what makes one reaction. And he adds no sorrow with it. You think about that whether you're rich physically financially your family in all areas you realize this the blessing of the lord is where that starts. And we should never forget that. And another from proverbs it actually that I picked today from the 24 chapter prospers. Through wisdom. House is built and by understanding it is established. By knowledge the rooms are filled with all precious and pleasant riches. A wise man a strong yes a man of knowledge. Increases. In strength. For Byron wise counsel. You will wage your war and in a multitude of counselors. Their safety. It is a point we make time and time again. We are counselors we are very specific and the council we give him it has to do retirement planning that we work with other counselors. I have a great CPA chip forty's the person we refer folks deuce he works in their injured jump to without us. We have attorneys that we use that I use you have doctors you have. You have pastors that teacher about toward those are counselors. So the point being made here is the more wisdom. Did you surround yourself with the more knowledge that you arming yourself with. The greater will be your success in life and it is anybody who's ever succeeded we'll tell you their success was the result. Of standing on the shoulders of people who knew more than they did and learning from him and applying what they learn so we hope that you will. You'll do that and is part of that equation clemency yes. So I wanted to be some council today. Because I wanna talk about Little League history and some some kind of spooky parallels. Now I just turned seventy and I was on the air doing talk radio in San Antonio. When this evening in the crash of 1987. Occurred. The event the anniversary fiftieth anniversary was this week Thursday the nineteenth. Thirty years ago fifty. The US stock market crash seems like fifty. 1030 years ago this is that I'm reading actually from MarketWatch piece by Howard gold and I want to listen to this as a very important. Because most of your or in risk. Assets of one kind of stocks bonds mutual funds and so forth in your form case or whatever so let's closely. The title of this article three reasons why the next crash may be worse. Than 1986. So that crash was the worst day ever. In one day the market lost nearly 23%. In a day. End a book called first class catastrophe was written about it by Diane Lane every case. And so he beat quote somewhat from this book but I am in a quote why is is different not much is the point book X. Not much has changed. Since the 1987 crash am and some things have gotten worse. So. Here are three reasons. I think the next crash whenever it comes. Will be worse. In. 1980 seven's number one. The market is much more fragmented now. Back in 1987 in New York Stock Exchange to Chicago options and futures exchange for almost the only games in town. Now according to the book. We have twelve regulated stock exchanges. For the alternative trading systems were stocks can trade and who knows how many dark pools those are members only trading being whose. Coordinating everybody now would be like herding cats. While organizing the big trades that got the market off its back in 1987. Seems inconceivable. Number two. Regulators are still living in their own world. Even the near catastrophe. Of 2008 cause few changes in the perennial regulatory turf war. The SEC is CF TCR like Tug boats passing uniformed. Even as financial innovation continues. We have moved so far for many realistic approach to market regulation. I don't know where you would even start when the market starts tanking. And number three computerized trading. He's more pervasive and ever. Program trading became the scapegoat in 1987. When he crashed now. JPMorgan estimates. Passage in quantitative investing accounts for 60%. Of stock trading at his double this year only a decade ago. So you have trading strategies. That are algorithm driven by giant investor using not billions but trillions. Of dollars. For example 2010 of flash crash showed the perils of computer driven markets going anywhere to date we still don't know. Why that happened. This time around because of the 24 separate news cycle and social media. The spread of panic could be like a wild fires going on in California much much faster than in 1987. I think we are on a nice pitch so the point that this article is making. In his when the that we have tried to make many times on this program is. There is very real risk out there for most people who were sitting in your typical investment account and you're not even being told really about this. If you talk to your typical Wall Street in financial advisor. Alternate talking about his. Risk analysis and profile as and let's get our allocation. And and buy in whole and all I sort of think well. That may be well and good for someone who is kind of in the early years of your best thing. But keep in mind. His retirement planners we hear -- much different standard and our standard is basically the same one that. Has been proposed by Stanford center for longevity in this society of actuaries. Calling for something they they refer to his rigs which is retirement income generators. The point they make in the point that we are making is unique to focus. On sources that guaranteed the ability to cover essential expenses like housing and food and clothing at a very minimum. And that. What ever you do with a crucial characteristic of these income options. Is that they must not be subject to market risk. That is the type. The approach we take we take are planned for someone and that is the type of approach we will take for you because our goal is we want you to retire without. Anxiety. We want you to retire with certainty therefore. If you are fifty plus. Or even if you're not. You should come and have a visit with us and let us take a look first of all what you doing at the very least we can give you some some context into perspective you probably don't have on what you currently doing but secondly. We can design a plan that will address what it is you're trying to achieve so to do that. It is very simple you just go to our website our common since retirement planning web site which he is CS RP dot. In follow stands for comments and retirement planning CS RP dot info make an appointment Cummins he has. And you will see an entirely different way to think about it return. I was so glad to get back to green go after my extended. Bear hunting trip it was the the adventure of a lifetime. And I was thinking about what your saying time week. When we deal with their clients or retire error retirees. We generally deal with a lot of these with their basic living expenses. Our clients have money that. Other principal is guaranteed. Any risk we take is calculated Maria square just. The principle is never risk and in some of the in some of the cases for the guaranteed money. Well one out there mayor honey we took a calculated risks are high but we didn't go out there and we just weren't. Eat it have you seen Tony that show where this fellow one of therapy or the color on the bear man. But he just went and Olivia he just went and lived with the mayor's NB CNN Rebecca killed it in heated. He you know he was taking you know he's he he figured that the mayor just loved him and one day a grubby bear showed up in the bear showed up in a ham and his girlfriend. And tragedy the people that came to rescue them and they that they. Have rifles and killed him but you know. I feel sometimes that we don't really realize the reais were taking especially in the market right now. Even if the market was. I had a decent price right now they talk about the PE ratios. Are higher than in 2008. In in 2001 end to end that even in 1920 navigating closed in 1929 levels. Well you're you're you're going past taking a calculated risk just being foolish I think sometimes that's where you or. And which you don't realize that I think a lot of times because you have a certain cover investment where you believe you should always be fully invested. Well we want you if you take Korea asked not to take foolish risk with your money there's an article that we we. That I read about Joseph Kennedy talking about how this shoeshine boy if he has predicted where the market was going. And he made a very important state he says the shoe shop more can predict where the market is going. Then it is no place for a man with a lot of money to lose. The difference between you now while you're close to retirement and when you were thirty years ago you could take Prius because you didn't have a lot of money to lose. But as you get close to retirement that one precious life savings that you have you don't need to take foolish Aureus with that money. And we would like to show you that may be this time. Is a bad time for you to be fully invested in the market. Even if it was a good time you're gonna have three to five market corrections. And once you start taking withdrawals the equation changes a good investment plan does not make a good retirement plan. If you'd like to see what a good solid safe retirement plan looks like would like for you to give us a call 1800. 6876768. 180687676. Say look us up on the way AM at CS RP dot info at. I had a really interesting week this week and it says. Interesting this week in addition last week but a couple of things just some observations. One and round funding is you would think that with the market being isn't as inflated and we're seeing these double digit rates of return on 41 K statements as are coming in. Matter of fact today. Actually last week SI when they came in it was fourteen point 36% rate of return so you think that that individual would be really excited. They warrant. Which sounds counter intuitive. It seems that the runup in the market. Is continuing to perpetuate fear for those close to retirement and it should it. Because it's no different day and then I'm a big analogy person it's no different than when used to play with dirt. I was dirt and you to hold the salient in your hand it run right through your fingers. If you had older sister may be beaten dirt or older brother and I am sure had to do that that. This BS admitting that Manning in a different position to where it's more of a solid rock in your Haney and not dirt the scanner run through your fingers. Salem SharePoint with that will mop up many as. Is that this is still on the accumulation phase this individual was still in the accumulation phase and they still are able to sleep at night. Because it can't study the way it is your gut tell you McCain instead paid. I have an article here from Ed Yardeni. And he is the individual who predicted does too. Thousand crash or 2002001. Crash it was a dot com crash. And the title of this and this is from new smacked Max is end of the market melt up. Well resemble 1987. Crash and it there a couple of other pieces that we're gonna cover today that refer back to that 1987. Crash it was a monumental event. Economic grew it can't root Edberg Yardeni is warning. Eighty overconfident investor. And that the current bull market just might be headed for brick wall. This is the burning in the Bailey's that we didn't sort of hearing from clients have come into the office. The S&P fail over 20%. On the black Monday. Crash of October 19 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped. Back 22%. Now is the 20% to club were to occur. Trading will be halted on the New York Stock Exchange for at least one hour. And possibly for the rest of the day depending on what Tom such a plunge occurred. A lot of investors are coming into the market into this bull market too late and they're doing it with the FT's. And in 1987. They could create a sort of portfolio insurance affect where some then suddenly. Happens. Things develop slowly and happen. Suddenly. An intimate Ed Yardeni. As the great name for landscaping company. All hell of honest gardening when had we missed it two weeks we're at this and we survived. I'm I'm I'm I have another piece of this year and this is this is very at an interest in peace Richard silly you don't know this man. But you probably. If you study economics would know who he is he's. Professor emeritus at the stern school of business and in color wrote a very famous book is actually a book that she's this is textbook economics a history of interest rates. And his expertise is standing cycles. So he. Has written a pretty interest in peace and this is what he says we are looking at a seventy to 80% chance of another global financial crisis. Here's what professor shall assess. A lot of the same things are going on right now just as they did before the 2008. Crisis. I think our probability is a 7080%. Chance of a major financial crisis. Because people figured that central banks avoided Great Depression last time you can do it again. So they're not worried. But they should be. The most important price in the economy is his point. And that is. Interest rates which have a direct influence on all economic activity activity or simply the most important prices in the economy example. Average person goes and spends 250000. On a home they finance it for thirty years at three point 83 so you would pay. I 175000. Dollars. Above your 250 just an interest. Almost as much as the cost of the house. That's true for cars which we have to buy other consumer and business loans for whatever kind to history provides scale. Of the Fed's current interventions and what that might mean. If you go making steady stream British bonds are councils that for call perpetual bonds yielded about. To have to 3% for about a hundred years of British empire and during that time when currency was backed by gold. There weren't as a natural interest rate to free markets were producing. Well today. To equal that treasuries would have to be producing essentially 8%. So it theoretical minimum US treasury. We have to present 3%. Ed foreign cut inflation compensation 2% risk premium 1% and compensation because interest fans are currently taxable roughly 2% and you come out. Within that 8%. So that is the difference between what is now almost to zero in treasury bond. And these this suggests that these kids minute mile nations are hitting us in two completely. Unknown waters and they are going to include cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio since two week Phillip and addressed a moment ago. Which are at highs not seen since the tech bubble. And personal business government danced. Are putting a limit on what central bankers can do. And more that not enough Massey derivative books some estimate of one quadrillion. Derivatives. 250. Million. Are hidden. Liabilities. That are and they Arabic people just aren't paying attention to and so his overall point you know this is and he's not alone. Is it we are in riskier times. Arguably than ever in our lifetime. And yet. There's this odd faults and two security that they get the press is trying to foist upon assaying. Old economy great job Europe everybody's been cooler consumer confidence. But what I'm seeing him with Rebecca is just talking about his. People that are coming to CS and I have to say this people would come to common sense retirement planning for advice on bile are smarter than your average mayor. There until those. On the way back we met when they are now and we're gonna get down with the bears that button but it's true. Because the people that are coming to see us get it they understand did that there is there are things going on out here that are. Anomalous. Haven't happened before and then in the potentially. The precursor to some massive. Economic changes not good change. So the people the clemency mr. Pope trying to prepare themselves. Just like. Just like to prepare yourself war. You know storm war whatever you'd his smartest of food put back in them source of water putback put out that there bug out bag all. My gosh to prepare for years what could be thirty year retirement. How important is that. So the people see SR are pretty Smart people by and large and we'd like for you if you weren't Smart people who come to see this as well so we can put together. A retirement plan which includes a re retirement income generator approach. So bad just like Stanford university's suggested. Ease a way to make sure. That you have sources of guaranteed income to pay for. Essential expenses you were prepared to pay for housing in your food and utilities at the very least. And these must be something you do not involved stock market risk and bad is bad as we approach we take. We wanna make sure there's income for you and your spouse. So. To look to find out more about it we would love to meet you. Comments these comments and retirement planning armored team members see them and really listen what you have to say take notes put together. A plan for you that addresses your concerns. And do and is very simple we just go to our common since retirement planning and site which UC. SRP. In for. When we come and meet with us we're going to tailor make a plans because everybody's different everyone has different needs. And we're gonna use certain indexes you know sometimes when we say principal guarantee people think it. Then there's no they think about a bank where if you say principal guarantee them right now he almost guarantee there's hardly any greater returns. And that's now forward or we're going to be using indexes to help give a reason Moret returns. And we go into the the what we need to do first is give you concerned. About your unprotected stocks and bonds. That where you're not hearing this from the mainstream media. And you don't wanna hear when you future quarterly statement and realize you've lost a lot of your life savings you need to do before they answer give us a call 1800. 6876768180687676. Say. Are you can look us up on the way and at CE SRP dot info. He come in for free complimentary consultation. Have a hot cup of coffee let it show you what we can do the most people spend more time planning there in entire. The planning their vacation every year than their entire financial future. Give us a call 180687676. Take a look us up on the way of CS RP dot info see in a minute. This year I used for in a tiny mini name for my shall pay that this is finally. Am not liking recommend our nation's mall advising you to tight connections by based on what you he had. We offer fate console by shun two essential needs allowing us to do is on a specific plan just for your situation. Securities a rule from today. Madison even these securities. Mim out of FEMA and seek peak. In my yes field of battle playing common since retirement planning and tiny dale and coal price has them not affiliated entities. Remember investing involves risk and claiming the potential also principal. Any references to east life piece here in the old gear MK lost on mean com. Generally ref as the text and Terrence products is secure shaved our investment products. In Toronto and on the day any pro box guarantee you that bond financial strength of the climbs buying ability obvious sharing insurance count nice. Why don't opt for a minute galore fox. Met statement made during their show should constant Jake ticks all legal Limbaugh likes. Yeah he should cold tea qualified professional before my aching and make decisions about your personal situation. Where not affiliated with the largest sites government Knoll. I need governmental I agents say. Thank you Crocodile Dundee. And so we return to you we have our monster slayer Philip Allen who just got back. From Alaska ends and some clue what to do what else would you call. An eight foot. 2000 pound animal with teeth and massive claws but the monster. Well there were a lot of monster for every word and that was a trophy bear would get over ten feet and feet and he's just or did you 15100 pounds. I'll give you quick version. A lot of people are interested in this and it was great for me. Spend most of my time talking with people about their retirement plan sitting in a chair and sometimes. It's good just to go on in Manger we flew in Anchorage. Flew south. West to a place called Keene salmon as on the Bering Sea. And keying salmon there's nothing but a big run away and for years that was an advanced fighter base for the air force. Interceptors. But we'd take a little. Cessna 180 from bear across to the Pacific side. And that all sounds good on you that was gonna happen well it turns out that we tried six times. To get to where we were supposed to land on the Pacific coast. And had to turn around in mid flight because the ceiling got solo we were flying you know hundred feet 200 fees and had to turn around one time we had to land halfway on a gravel bid. Because he was socked in both ways but the seventh. The seventh time homily we actually got to we're supposed to land and were supposed to land is interesting is in a bay in the Pacific Ocean. And at low tide the bay empties out. And it's a hard surface so. You know we get to look at this thousand so we're actually to land in the Pacific Ocean he said yes but it's a low pad and so we landed there. It was. Very. For me it was kind of harrowing that this was a bush policies seem to know what he was doing. We saw six by airs on the way in this as will much notice or she called office they were mayors in the bay when we landed. And we were staying in a tail end. You know rod off the bay. With a little electric fence around the which was interest thing bat. It was probably the the adventure in my lifetime on the weather was far worse than we thought it would be about thirty degrees that we had it town sixty mile an hour gale force winds and we we when we were actually the day that I took care harvested the mayor. While I headed in Moscow waiting for to get closer to us. IA Salle with three cubs came in behind this which really worried the gas aid and it terrified me. But that and they were working on that as I was looking to take my Bayer Brazil and. You're staring at comparing Yoshko. Three that'll cups creeped out and she yes when I was one to do what was one to do well here's the problem to clean out pay it. Those three little cubs weren't the problem it was the thousand pound sciele it was west palm. That if those kids got any closure was gonna come and get her curves away from this danger. What they needed it. When it did that cannot be said that guy's got no I think they were with us the keys Sid you won't have to shoot up in the air at one point in sitting if he gets to this point you're gonna have to shoot this Allison but it was going to be a paperwork nightmare. But that didn't happen the south skirted us and you know three or four hours later after running my bear off. We learn little interest rate don't get a good shot. This story did start out with us solve the bear in Moscow and I shot it now there are three cubs then there's a south anonymous guy he says dish ski ski investors see how he's handling this was the short version to India and that right. Well what you don't realize Rebecca if this fact. A lot of people don't realize this in order to shoot the mayor you have to make sure that that mayor is a more not a sale. And what happens is the bear comes to orgy you have to get the mayor to rare. On his time lay eggs. The new take your rifle and just move it around in his hair do you find out that it's a bowl or head unit and I just in the edges bear golf. So after about penis against. It is really a chance tan and that's why someone was asking me said you know want as your gun have a ten foot Merrill now. You don't pay well we saw the last part. I did make them okay I'm sorry about that. See you grew indyk can now people don't know when your savings ahead this my life. Tony this is our lives we sucks is CN today. Don't know where I Charlotte mayor at 200 NTN yards. We were able to get extracted from the bay a area about two days later. And I had the adventure of my lifetime. And I just really enjoyed it sometime if you lie to come in and talk with a soggy you all the details now coming in and sing at mayor and I won't make any thing hampered. Now you know you're to analyze that come out something. I appreciate. I appreciate all my clients you know having a successful business gives you opportunities like this and we thank you for coming in. And I think that my clients are. Glad they came in solace because they hear they have peace of mind with their retirement. But I wanna thank my clients for giving me a good lifestyle and giving me a way to take care of my family and he does so thank you very much I hope that I have returned the favor with good safe financially vast. Actually a bear warning. We had a real bear warning. Hard core bear warning this is a piece from Robert gore. And here's what he shares. You may prefer to feel good and heart warming that there are plenty of Wall Street research reports and mainstream media stories about the economy. Available saying everything's fine it's when shortly. However. Credit creation without restraint. His paper the globe with the greatest pile of dead could mankind has ever amassed. Measured in terms any term you choose and this dead becomes an asset within the financial system. Because of our banking system so I think with this nominal global day is reckoned of about 250 trillion. That is three times. Global gross domestic product. Debt supported derivatives I mentioned this earlier these are financial instruments whose price is right from the prices of other financial instruments. Our estimate is somewhere between 500000000000000. And one quadrillion. That is six to twelve times. Global GDP. Then there's another asset class. Overpriced houses. They are not what caused the last financial crisis securitized packages of mortgages and other remedies fit so. You have that in you have. The problem globally of unfunded old age pensions and medical liabilities. If you. For decal that his dad those promises. That would be another 400 trillion dollars in the US alone 210 trillion daddy is. Eleven times. Our GDP. So the question is. Should you worry. Well. There may be in number of reasons why you shouldn't because. When the world was less and dated. And money's unit worth of debt produce more than this fake Fiat currency did. We had a normal system it is no longer normal. And the problem is. That. Financial markets currently. Are nothing more than an exercise in group psychology. So. They have an order or an inner ear impetus of their loan and every month. Another sentiment indicator. Shows that people investors. Do not seem to understand. The dangers that the Iranians so. Given the unprecedented. His oracle mind numbing level of global debt. It would appear that every financial assets in the world. Is either reject claim. Or even a less secure equity claim. Much of the world's real tangible assets in other words are mortgaged. And win this debt bubble implode and it will. There will be a global margin call. That will force people to sail. And he would drive down. Prices of all these assets precipitously and very rapidly. Now that was kind of and academic waded to state something that we have said in a much simpler way time and again in many news. There we are. To use a bit of a hackneyed phrase. Living on borrowed time to make upon. That time is going to run out we in all of a sudden. It will be certain. There's going to be an event that once it starts to unfold is going to cause markets to. Precipitous. Decline. And you will not have time to give out. Because is just flat too complicated. History will repeat itself. So we'd. Urge you before this event occurs to come in a let us talk to about taking at least some of your assets and using the Stanford center for longevity approach. Creating a rig for yourself for retirement income generator that will take care of your essential expenses of food and shelter and clothing and do so without stock market risk. So they win this occurs. You were not Ballmer said to do so. Come and CS by going to our web site seat as RP dot info. One of the things are being interest in in knowing news. Has anybody called you up from your 401K and told you that your 401K. Is how is valued very high and there is a good chance that it could. Deep crease in value. Tool I don't think anybody ever called me for my heroine and this should be interest especially to people like Michelin has vanguard is their 401K provider. Vanguard is the low price leader nothing wrong vanguard as far as mutual funds go there. They're a good mutual fund. But they're president mogul. Who is one of considered one of the investment gurus in the United States. And several other people are trying detail people that these valuations are very expansive. Is say is 88 year old sub zero and age 88 year old investing icon Jack Bogle founder of the vanguard group's say it. The valuations as stocks are by my standards rather high. Wall Street will have none of that they look ahead to the earnings for the next twelve months. He also noted that Wall Street analysis look at operating earnings earnings without all the bad stuff. And come up with a price earnings multiple something in the range of seventeen to eighteen he said I strongly believe investors should be realizing. Valuations are fairly full and if they are nervous they could easily sell off a portion of their stocks. Well. He says that but in the typical 401K do you ever sail some of your stocks do you ever move it to safety. No you stay fully invested until fought until what happened to you in 2008. But now you're closer to retirement and you gain of have the time to make up for that listen to this. Vogel went on. To stay. Vogel went on to say. Later he says Vogel is clearly correct that valuations have reached expansive levels. More importantly outside the peak in 1999. Stocks or more highly valued today than any other point in history. Mobil's view is also confirm my other measures as whale. Shares doctor Robert Shiller sickly adjusted PE ratios Tony was talking about earlier again valuations only appeared cheapened compared to the peak in 2000. Outside of that exception the financial markets are now more expenses than inner other single point in history. Moguls say is these rapid mauling of investors is one declines are aptly named bear markets and you know I'd give you did that went way when the when we went hunting. We carried a three sending five HNH I cared a 500 Smith & Wesson pistol but calls the last thing I want it to happen would be mauled by Bayer. But. Watt. A bear market is called his the calls people get mauled by the minute this happened drop before your retirement it may destroy your retirement. You need to look at their retirement plan rather than an investment plan. To do that you need to be pro active give us a call at 1806876768. 180687676. Say look this up on the way admits the NS RP dot in. Bounce around between three articles that I have been sort of mesh them all together into a financial discussion or high ash pie ish if you will. First article I had here in the reason is because they are three different experts for and freed three different lines of business that all have a very similar. Theme going in throughout the articles that we have here one is from MSNBC. The other is from MSNBC Ana have one here for MarketWatch the first one. Is commentary from Kyle bass he says this will be their first son of a bigger market meltdown. Kyle bass of payment capital management says a timely warning on an air pocket. This coming as we near the thirtieth anniversary of black Monday. If you look at all of the different. Consistency to the market today it resembles a portfolio insurance insurance debacle of 1987. On steroids. Well like take to set off a stop market correction. When I four or 5% decline in equities quickly morphed into eight and are 18% decline. That's what she'd have to look for some Nepal's her second I'm gonna hop into some common teary. From. Scott's career and who is a senior global equity strategist at wells far dead. Rain is predicting a four to 8% dip from current levels before year's end. This is from Wells Fargo at. Wells Fargo C Schable for stocks embrace or a four to 8% slot before year's end. He goes on to into the article and I won't belabor the subject matter because we've hit on it until it really touched on a pretty firmly mum again. Well he's alluding to was a cape ratio and a further on in the article and how did firm price to valuations of these stocks is gonna come to ring used. So to continue in this sort of sneer at here have got another article here from David Stockman. And what he says is there's a correction every seven to eight years how long a wait that long in the tooth hearing happened by now yes don't know when he almost ten years. Says. Here's what he says in and let me back up a sickening DB some relativity here of new David Stockman again as. He's a Reagan administration's director of the Office of Management and Budget. And he's not making backing away from misty says that the eight in a hat bureau rallies in serious danger. There's a correction every seven to eight years and they tint to be anywhere from forty to 70%. And stockman recently it's this is an interview on its teachers now on CNBC. If you have to work for a living get out of the casino because it's a dangerous. Place. This is what Kyle bass is referring to it he just said and let me repeat it because it worse for its worth repeating. What would take. To set off a stock market correction and you say global forty main bad that. Any small dip because everybody knows this market is overvalued. Everybody Nancy you know it you know that it is so at least rcn even the smallest amount of decline. It's day analogy that Tony AG's time and time again it during our time together in this spot. When you smell smoke. Do you wanna get up and leave the theater when you smell and you feel like something's gonna happen or do you wonder run for the exits when everybody else is trying to get out at the same time that you gave. Well how would you suggest to get out why he smelled smoke and that's what Kyle asked David stop mend and Scott ran are suggesting. If you see the equity market crack for a stop points buckle up. Because I think we're going to see a pretty intrastate air pocket and I don't think investors are ready for that. Was exacerbating the situation is seen massively popular shift. From active to passive investing over the years. This mains and Tony you alluded to this the top of the shadow of their risk is in the hands of people who don't know how to take. Risk that is what is going to make people Bryant that is what is going to calls a dramatic drop in the markets essentially. Essentially and this is report from Jesse failed or buying the stock market is essentially taking on an incredible amount of risk. For the prospect of zero. Reward. Over the next. Stand here and I guess if I might just tag on. To this one caucus and it was mentioned something or earlier but that I don't think people really adds about sort of glossed over this is a big point. Yeah absolutely with the difference now with. In the end the way it was back in 1987 which I was they are I remember this. Is it now not only do we have all these. Other markets out there and other exchanges but we had the 24 hour news cycle and social media I imagine a wildfire for real. The minutes this stuff really starts going south. What will be different this time is that everybody's gonna know it instantly and that's all you're going to be hearing on the news epidemic and people all start selling at the same time it will be caused it will cost and called a panic. Via which is exactly what they called Internet in 1929. Tony are an article of the day that's one of the reason the markets up the house calls and ETFs. Sid machines never sale. He says yeah they never sale until the panic starts and said the machines will I mean then the machines won't stop selling. You know it will be instead they'll sail before you do. And Sid you're not going to be able to get out of the stock unless you can sell it and said machines are going to be selling for you do there's just this market has become. More of a casinos than something that is a calculated risk is really become more of a casino. Pay. You've got one life savings would like to help you keep it you know is coming up on Halloween. Don't know if you. Celebrate Halloween or that kind of thing. Paid that are Rebecca has been decent it's funny though they saw things he's that he liked Halloween trick or treat he said. A heady goodies that DOS India sees it is that magical time of year on the cob webs in my house suddenly become decorative. So I thought I know I can't get it he. I thought that was beautiful battle isn't bad at home in Delaware I've been a big can of worms here he Urdu but if you don't wanna trick or treat you know pure finances this year give us a call 1806876768. 1806. Takes them off 676. A Ehrlich a so on the way a bit CS RP Dodd and. If there has been the shift. Is and it's a big winners under way we we we were the original. Retirement planners in the upstate you probably know that we were doing the show that focused on retirement planning went king. Years ago almost is when we started. And since the end it there has been a shift underway. As people are getting older they're they're suddenly awakening to the fact that. When they go into retirement if they go through another 2000 Nader 2000 this could absolutely. Destroyed their their retirement. So. Stanford center for longevity in the society of actuaries have been studying this and they've created a strategy for creating a lifetime retirement income because they realized. It is. Traditional pensions by and large are have gone away and the ones that exist like south Carolina's is. Is only has 53% of the funding to actually pay at the frankly that. We've talked about that a lot detention system. In this country is doomed. Legally if so just this retirement savers need to be. Diversified in their savings. And they talk about that what. The authors of the Stanford study talk about time and again is is is creating what they call a really. And retirement income generator for yourself we do this we create rigs we've been doing it now for. For many years we started before anybody else amusing thinking about this stuff. And corpus of this is to make sure that you have a source of guaranteed. Income to pay for the basic fact you've got to pay for your housing your food or utilities at the bare minimum hopefully. You were a medical costs. And the crucial characteristic of these re eggs. Is that they must not be subject to stock market risk. So that. Foundational. Part of of retirement plan is that they need take care of first. Make sure that you are not going to lose money when market crash and make sure there will be money to pay for your basic needs. And then this is unique to the approach we take and we raises when markets are going up. That's one of the week we have in our our approaches we believe inflation's going to be come problematic week we address that as well and more and what's also nicest. Pitcher passing. Whatever still left of your assets you may pass on to this is unlike these old annuities you've probably heard about. That's not the way these things work you you can. Pass what's left onto your loved ones that your passing self. If you wanna learn how to create a read for yourself. Go to common sense retirement planning website as our website CS RP dot info. Inflation is much higher than advertised this is at peace announced anti China lightly because we never seem to get tells us if we wanna talk about during our time together but this is from charge Charles key Smith. And he talks about things that are not accounted for inflation. If you're wondering why your Social Security payments aren't going I'll DV some of the major falls on how the CPI is weighted. Housing is not actual rents paid or mortgage payments. Health care is 18% of the net as the nation's economy. But only eight point 5%. Of the CPI. Higher education cost for those who paid them. Are much larger than six point 9% so these are all things that come into play. When accounting for and making adjustments to your Social Security payment. Doesn't account for food doesn't account for energy. More honest and accurate estimates of real world inflation that includes the big ticket categories of housing. Education and so forth around inflation is 7%. Israel fellows. And where you people know it they go shopping may pay for dispensing of the government. And the end and what was it the Social Security just gave the biggest inflationary. And the years 10%. That cutter our our other three bucks a month and then when they at the increase the Medicare pregnancy was negative. So listen. This is the time for you to do something about it before. It hits the fan and you're standing in front of the fan. We don't want this to happen you shall come to see the upstaged original retirement planners common since retirement planning our team. Sudan and creed you read for you look at your overall situation talked about health care about long term to. To do something about it now before it's too late go to CS RP dot info. We'll have a beautiful picture a big bear for each state. God bless you.
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